A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

Tools for predicting wildlife species distribution response to ecological shifts

“…Evolution and adaptation are both driven by environmental factors, therefore, it can be assumed that each is partially determined by fluctuating climate (Hoffmann and Sgro 2011). When correlating species vulnerability with current and projected climate, a susceptibility analyses tool is used (Britzke et al 2014). This can be further applied to environmental management actions and used in estimating the accumulated risk for each species dependent upon future climate (Dale et al 2001;Foden et al 2008).…”

“…However, as each of these factors change independently to impact other components, a more comprehensive methodology is needed to conduct a robust assessment of the impacts of CC across a variety of situations and locations.Models that display where TER-S are currently located, and to what extent these range shifts will occur, will be of great importance towards future project planning and resource management. Britzke et al (2014) outlines existing research products for physical upland climate drivers (e.g., precipitation, temperature, land classification) that are suitable for delineating biome shift vulnerability. For example, some TER-S are strongly associated with specific vegetation communities and forecasting vegetation dynamics can be causally linked to TER-S ranges.…”

“…These models can assess drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar loading, and atmospheric chemistry. There are a variety of models used to assess dynamic changes in temperature and precipitation over landscapes with varying degrees of inputs (Real et al 2010;Twidwell et al 2014a;Twidwell et al 2014b;Britzke et al 2014;Beaumont et al 2008;Moss et al 2010), however, there is no single best climate model to cover all geographic regions as each model caters to specific areas (IPCC 2007) and is used for specific purposes. Confidence in each model is obtained through the following three factors: (1) physical scientific laws and observations, (2) the capability to simulate important characteristics within the current environment, and (3) the ability of the model to reproduce past environmental responses to changes in variable climate (Giorgi 2005;Randall et al 2007).…”

“…For the purposes of this work, limits are placed on the consideration of the spatial bounds of the USACE North Atlantic Division. The typical time frame for a climate dependent ecological model is around 30 years (Britzke et al 2014); however, some models, when used for environmental sensitivity investigations, can continue to produce predictions over hundreds and thousands of years (Moss et al 2010). Models must be selectively chosen depending upon the research question and the desired output.…”

“…Publically Sourced Data. A model will take one or more inputs over a selected spatialtemporal extent, to produce an output that can be interpreted and reported (Britzke et al 2014;Pultar 2009). Data needed for model inputs can often be obtained from numerous organizations.…”