A Sampling Framework for Uncertainty in Individual Environmental Decisions

Galešić, Mirta; Kause, Astrid; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

doi:10.1111/tops.12172

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 62 publications

(76 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Research focusing on the proximate cognitive mechanisms involved in fertility regulation can also help us understand the potential for, and direction of, mismatches under novel conditions. It would be particularly useful to know what 'reference populations' are relevant for fertility decisionmaking [97] and how different levels of inequality are perceived, mentally represented, and translated into different behavioural outcomes.…”

Section: (B) Empirical Connectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Status competition, inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

Shenk

Kaplan

Hooper

2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The role that social status plays in small-scale societies suggests that status may be important for understanding the evolution of human fertility decisions, and for understanding how such decisions play out in modern contexts. This paper explores whether modelling competition for status—in the sense of relative rank within a society—can help shed light on fertility decline and the demographic transition. We develop a model of how levels of inequality and status competition affect optimal investment by parents in the embodied capital (health, strength, and skills) and social status of offspring, focusing on feedbacks between individual decisions and socio-ecological conditions. We find that conditions similar to those in demographic transition societies yield increased investment in both embodied capital and social status, generating substantial decreases in fertility, particularly under conditions of high inequality and intense status competition. We suggest that a complete explanation for both fertility variation in small-scale societies and modern fertility decline will take into account the effects of status competition and inequality.

show abstract

Section: (B) Empirical Connectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Status competition, inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

Shenk

Kaplan

Hooper

2016

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The article by Galesic et al. () proposes a statistical sampling framework to develop a classification of different sources of uncertainty that people encounter when making environmental decisions. Galesic and colleagues then map these sources of uncertainty onto different public‐policy strategies that might help individuals cope with this smorgasboard of uncertainty during decision making.…”

Section: From Fundamentals To Behavioral Modeling: the Articles In Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sweetman and Whitmarsh (2016) examine the importance of social role models, and Joslyn and LeClerc (2016) examine the impact of providing uncertainty estimates on people's acceptance of climate projections. Galesic, Kause, and Gaissmaier (2016) likewise expand on the uncertainty theme by providing a classification of different sources of uncertainty and how they can be acknowledged by policy makers and stakeholders.…”

Section: Strands Of Inquirymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To illustrate, the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report of 2013 used the word "uncertain" or its derivatives (e.g., "uncertainty") more than 2,200 times in the report of Working Group 1 alone-or around 1.5 times per printed page. The article by Galesic et al (2016) proposes a statistical sampling framework to develop a classification of different sources of uncertainty that people encounter when making environmental decisions. Galesic and colleagues then map these sources of uncertainty onto different public-policy strategies that might help individuals cope with this smorgasboard of uncertainty during decision making.…”

Section: From Fundamentals To Behavioral Modeling: the Articles In Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future Global Change and Cognition

Lewandowsky

2016

Topics in Cognitive Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The 11 articles in this issue explore how people respond to climate change and other global challenges. The articles pursue three broad strands of enquiry that relate (1) to the effects and causes of "skepticism" about climate change, (2) the purely cognitive challenges that are posed by a complex scientific issue, and (3) the ways in which climate change can be communicated to a wider audience. Cognitive science can contribute to understanding people's responses to global challenges in many ways, and it may also contribute to implementing solutions to those problems.

show abstract

“…One potential difficulty in communicating climate projections is their inherent uncertainty [12]. This uncertainty arises from different sources, including natural variability in climate data resulting in imprecision, and uncertainty about how future human activities will impact on the climate, represented through different emission scenarios, or model uncertainty [13][14][15][16][17][18]. Thus, audiences' interpretations of climate projections and associated uncertainties may differ from what climate experts aim to communicate [19,20].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study about User Perceptions

Kause

Bruin²,

Fung

et al. 2020

Sustainability

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Stakeholders from public, private, and third sectors need to adapt to a changing climate. Communications about climate may be challenging, especially for audiences with limited climate expertise. Here, we study how such audience members perceive visualizations about projected future rainfall. In semi-structured interviews, we presented 24 participants from climate-conscious organizations across the UK with three prototypical visualizations about projected future rainfall, adopted from the probabilistic United Kingdom Climate Projections: (1) Maps displaying a central estimate and confidence intervals, (2) a line graph and boxplots displaying change over time and associated confidence intervals, and (3) a probability density function for distributions of rainfall change. We analyzed participants' responses using "Thematic Analysis". In our analysis, we identified features that facilitated understanding-such as colors, simple captions, and comparisons between different emission scenarios-and barriers that hindered understanding, such as unfamiliar acronyms and terminology, confusing usage of probabilistic estimates, and expressions of relative change in percentages. We integrate these findings with the interdisciplinary risk communication literature and suggest content-related and editorial strategies for effectively designing visualizations about uncertain climate projections for audiences with limited climate expertise. These strategies will help organizations such as National Met Services to effectively communicate about a changing climate.Sustainability 2020, 12, 2955 2 of 21 probabilistic climate projections about how the UK climate is expected to change over the course of the current century for the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) and 2018 (UKCP18) platform [7,8]. These climate projections are simulations of how, for example, precipitation or temperatures might change in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, as well as how likely those changes are.However, climate projections may be challenging for stakeholders from public, private, and third-sector organizations and members of the general public [2,4,[9][10][11]. One potential difficulty in communicating climate projections is their inherent uncertainty [12]. This uncertainty arises from different sources, including natural variability in climate data resulting in imprecision, and uncertainty about how future human activities will impact on the climate, represented through different emission scenarios, or model uncertainty [13][14][15][16][17][18]. Thus, audiences' interpretations of climate projections and associated uncertainties may differ from what climate experts aim to communicate [19,20]. In addition, presenting uncertainty in climate information may delay public action on climate change [21], promote a "wait-and-see" approach [22], or increase public polarization about climate change [23]. This calls for communication formats that allow stakeholders to make adequate adaptation decisions and to integ...

show abstract

A Sampling Framework for Uncertainty in Individual Environmental Decisions

Cited by 16 publications

References 62 publications

Status competition, inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

Status competition, inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

Future Global Change and Cognition

Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study about User Perceptions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About