A Scalable Solution for Running Ensemble Simulations for Photovoltaic Energy

Abstract

This chapter proposes and provides an in-depth discussion of a scalable solution for running ensemble simulation for solar energy production. Generating a forecast ensemble is computationally expensive. But with the help of Analog Ensemble, forecast ensembles can be generated with a single deterministic run of a weather forecast model. Weather ensembles are then used to simulate 11 10 KW photovoltaic solar power systems to study the simulation uncertainty under a wide range of panel configuration and weather conditions. This computational workflow has been deployed onto the NCAR supercomputer, Cheyenne, with more than 7,000 cores.Results show that, spring and summer are typically associated with a larger simulation uncertainty. Optimizing the panel configuration based on their individual performance under changing weather conditions can improve the simulation accuracy by more than 12%. This work also shows how panel configuration can be optimized based on geographic locations.