A scenario analysis of Beijing's private traffic patterns

Liu, Jingru; Wang, Rusong; Jiang, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2006.06.002

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Indeed, most publications indicating carsharing as a PSS-example assume sustainability-gains (e.g. Beuren et al, 2013;Gaiardelli et al, 2014;Geum and Park, 2011;Lim et al, 2012;Liu et al, 2007;Manzini and Vezzoli, 2003;Walz, 2011), and many positive impactassumptions regarding carsharing are likely to be correct.…”

Section: The Trailing Emergence Of Empirical Shared-mobility Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generic time- and method-interdependencies of empirical impact-measurements: A generalizable model of adaptation-processes of carsharing-users' mobility-behavior over time

Firnkorn

Shaheen

2016

Journal of Cleaner Production

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The purpose of this article is to advance empirical sustainability-evaluations of carsharing-systems. Carsharing, a frequently cited example of a product-service system (PSS), is currently morphing from a niche into a mainstream mode of transportation. Carsharing has the potential to provide a more sustainable mobility-option compared to private car usage, for example by reducing the overall motor-vehicle traffic in cities. However, the quantification of this potential is complex, and few studies have analyzed the fundamental impacts of the chosen measurementmethodology on the results of empirical carsharing-evaluations. This article analyses the time-and methodinterdependencies of carsharing-studies based on a generic model structuring the adaptation of the mobility-behavior of carsharing-users over time. A paradigm shift from a static to a dynamic view on impacts of the PSS carsharing is proposed, which could support policymakers enacting carsharing-regulations in cities. The analysis of generic methodological interdependencies when conceptualizing impacts as dynamic processes is generalizable to impactassessments of new technologies changing user-behavior over time.

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Section: The Trailing Emergence Of Empirical Shared-mobility Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generic time- and method-interdependencies of empirical impact-measurements: A generalizable model of adaptation-processes of carsharing-users' mobility-behavior over time

Firnkorn

Shaheen

2016

Journal of Cleaner Production

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“…This calls for continued strong policy action to control vehicular emissions in Beijing. It has been shown that efficiency improvements and advances in technology are unlikely to be sufficient if increasing environmental impacts from private transport in Beijing are to be avoided (Liu et al 2007). Thus, policies are needed both to stimulate the utilization of low‐emitting cars and to canalize future growth in mobility toward nonmotorized transport means or public transport.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, from 1996 to 2006 the proportion of total expenditures spent on food decreased from 47% to 31%, the average per capita floor space increased from 14 to 20 m 2 , and the average household size decreased from 3.06 to 2.90 persons per household. The greater spending power, combined with relaxing restrictions on private vehicle ownership, has led to substantial increases in private car ownership (Liu et al 2007). In 2006, there were 18 automobiles per 100 households in urban Beijing, compared with 4.3 in urban China in general.…”

Section: Background Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Cost of Living and Associated Pollution for Beijing Residents

Arvesen

Liu

Hertwich³

2010

J of Industrial Ecology

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SummaryChina's remarkable economic growth in the last 3 decades has brought about big improvements in quality of life while simultaneously contributing to serious environmental problems. The aim of all economic activities is, ultimately, to provide the population with products and services. Analyzing environmental impacts of consumption can be valuable for illuminating underlying drivers for energy use and emissions in society. This study applies an environmentally extended input-output analysis to estimate household environmental impact (HEI) of urban Beijing households at different levels of development. The analysis covers direct and indirect energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and nitrogen oxide (NO x ). On the basis of observations of how HEI varies across income groups, prospects for near-future changes in HEI are discussed. Results indicate that in 2007, an urban resident in Beijing used, on average, 52 gigajoules of total primary energy supply. The corresponding annual emissions were 4.2 tonnes CO 2 , 27 kilograms SO 2 , and 17 kilograms NO x . Of this, only 18% to 34% was used or emitted by the households directly. While the overall expenditure elasticity of energy use is around 0.9, there is a higher elasticity of energy use associated with transport. The results suggest that significant growth in HEI can be expected in the near future, even with substantial energy efficiency improvements.

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“…Estimates of aggregate reduction in CO 2 emission factors for Chinese passenger transport from fuel efficiency improvements and clean fuels vary, including 17% (Liu et al, 2007), 22% (Ou et al, 2010) and 25% (Zhang et al, 2005). This scenario assumes a midlevel values for 2020 of 20%, rising to 25% in 2030, compared to the trend value.…”

Section: Land Use and Transport Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030

Mitchell

Heppenstall

2015

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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Evaluating transport policy for cities in developing countries is often constrained by data availability that limits the use of conventional appraisal models. Here, we present a new 'bottom-up' methodology to estimate transport CO 2 emission from daily urban passenger travel for Beijing, a megacity with relatively sparse data on travel behaviour. A spatial microsimulation, based on an activity diary survey and two sample population censuses, is used to simulate, for Beijing's urban districts, a realistic synthetic population, and their daily travel and CO 2 emission over 2000-2010. This approach provides greater insight into the spatial variability of transport CO 2 emission than has previously been possible for Beijing, and further, enables an examination of the role of socio-demographics, urban form and transport developments in contributing to emissions over the modelled period.Using the 2000-2010 CO 2 emission estimates as a baseline, CO 2 emissions from passenger travel are then modelled to 2030 under scenarios exploring politically plausible strategies on transport (public transport infrastructure investment, and vehicle constraint), urban development (compaction) and vehicle technology (faster adoption of clean vehicle technology). The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO 2 emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. The study reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches.

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A scenario analysis of Beijing's private traffic patterns

Cited by 12 publications

References 8 publications

Generic time- and method-interdependencies of empirical impact-measurements: A generalizable model of adaptation-processes of carsharing-users' mobility-behavior over time

Generic time- and method-interdependencies of empirical impact-measurements: A generalizable model of adaptation-processes of carsharing-users' mobility-behavior over time

Energy Cost of Living and Associated Pollution for Beijing Residents

Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030

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