A Scenario Study of Globalization Impacts on International Transport and the Environment: An Application to the Dutch Paper Industry

Abstract

Globalization has severe impacts on international transport, which in turn affect local and global environmental issues. This study presents an approach to studying these relationships. It identifies four world scenarios based on a distinction between OECD and other countries, and then traces the implications of these for international transport and environment. The proposed method is applied to a specific transport-intensive sector in the Netherlands, namely the paper industry.

An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK

“…Godet [20], Godet and Rouebelat [16] and van Veen-Croot et al [21] distinguish exploratory and normative or anticipatory scenarios. Exploratory scenarios developed from description of the past extrapolated by present trends indicate which scenarios might happen and then proceed to describe the possible future outcomes.…”

“…Van Veen-Croot et al [21] term the latter objective methods and the former subjective. Notten et al [22] further classify scenarios based on the range of possible futures taken into account as alternative or business as usual.…”