A scoping review of foot‐and‐mouth disease risk, based on spatial and spatio‐temporal analysis of outbreaks in endemic settings

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important transboundary animal diseases affecting livestock and wildlife species worldwide. Sustained viral circulation, as evidenced by serological surveys and the recurrence of outbreaks, suggests endemic transmission cycles in some parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This is the result of a complex process in which multiple serotypes, multi-host interactions and numerous socio-epidemiological factors converge to facilitate disease introduction, survival and spread. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses have been increasingly used to explore the burden of the disease by identifying high-risk areas, analysing temporal trends and exploring the factors that contribute to the outbreaks. We systematically retrieved spatial and spatial-temporal studies on FMD outbreaks to summarize variations on their methodological approaches and identify the epidemiological factors associated with the outbreaks in endemic contexts. Fifty-one studies were included in the final review. A high proportion of papers described and visualized the outbreaks (72.5%) and 49.0% used one or more approaches to study their spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal aggregation. The epidemiological aspects commonly linked to FMD risk are broadly categorizable into themes such as (a) animal demographics and interactions, (b) spatial accessibility, (c) trade, (d) socio-economic and (e) environmental factors. The consistency of these themes across studies underlines the different pathways in which the virus is sustained in endemic areas, with the potential to exploit them to design tailored evidence based-control programmes for the local needs. There was limited data linking the socio-economics of communities and modelled FMD outbreaks, leaving a gap in the current knowledge. A thorough analysis of FMD outbreaks requires a systemic view as multiple epidemiological factors contribute to viral circulation and may improve the accuracy of disease mapping. Future studies should explore the links between socio-economic and epidemiological factors as a foundation for translating the identified opportunities into interventions to improve the outcomes of FMD surveillance and control initiatives in endemic contexts.

Temporal Geospatial Mapping of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak in Aceh, Indonesia

“…Despite challenges related to data availability, data quality, and the complexity of FMD transmission mechanisms, spatial analysis remains a valuable tool in FMD research. Studies by González-Gordon et al (2022) and have highlighted these limitations. Nevertheless, spatial analysis continues to play a crucial role in identifying outbreak sources, assessing disease clusters, and understanding transmission dynamics (Yang et al, 2022).…”

“…By focusing on high-risk areas identified through hotspot analysis and complementing it with spatially explicit surveillance methods, such as geostatistical modeling or remote sensing, authorities can enhance their ability to detect and respond to FMD outbreaks promptly (van Seventer and Hochberg, 2016). The combination of hotspot analysis and Moran's I provides valuable insights into the spatial dynamics of FMD in Aceh province, informing strategic decision-making and guiding proactive measures to combat the spread of this economically significant livestock disease (González-Gordon et al, 2022).…”

Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

“…Evidence of PPR spatial autocorrelation methods for disease cluster identification was documented in 35.7% (n = 15) of the studies. However, due to the diversity of techniques used to identify such clusters (unusual aggregation of epidemics) and hotspots (excess level of epidemics in comparison to a threshold level), their diverse assumptions and the configuration of the data on these results tended to vary within and across studies (19). Spatial analysis is a useful tool for studying the distribution of infectious diseases, which, due to their transmission dynamics, often follow diverse spatial patterns and commonly occur in spatial clusters (42).…”

“…Either in testing a hypothesis, the outcomes of such a study can be directly compared if the analytical methods used are well understood (17,18). For instance, studies examining how local elements like topography, socioeconomics, demography, and environment can impact disease reporting, identification, and circulation changes over time and space (19). The important step in choosing a model's parameters is to consider the disease pathway that is thought to connect epidemiological factors with epidemics.…”

Epidemiological Patterns of Foot and Mouth Disease in Egypt and Other African Countries

“…It is possible that regions with FMDVfriendly conditions would be better for preserving the illness and more likely to see outbreaks. Considering this, meteorological and microclimatic variables such as relative humidity, temperature, windspeed, and precipitationmay represent a number of processes linked to direct and indirect FMDV transmission routes (Gordon et al, 2022).…”