Abstract:The use of tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts are ubiquitous in meteorological operations. Here, a flexible family of scoring functions is presented for evaluating the performance of ordered multicategorical forecasts. Each score has a risk parameter ๐ผ, selected for the specific use case, so that it is consistent with a forecast directive based on the fixed threshold probability 1 โ ๐ผ (equivalently, a fixed ๐ผ-quantile mapping). Each score also has use-case specific weights so that forecasters wh… Show more
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