A Seasonal Statistical Evaluation of COAMPS® over the Arabian Gulf Region

Abstract

Abstract-A statistical evaluation of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS â ) was performed over the Arabian Gulf region for the period, 1 August to 5 October, 2004. Verification skill scores of bias and root-mean-square error were estimated for surface variables and for vertical profiles to investigate any diurnal variations. The model predictions of boundary-layer heights are compared with the observations at Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The Middle East presents challenges to numerical weather prediction due to complex land-ocean-land mesoscale processes. An independent data set of surface measurements from 50 stations in the UAE was available from the Department of Water Resources Studies, Abu Dhabi for model verification. The results indicate a diurnal variation in the model errors. The errors are small considering the magnitudes of the observed variables. Errors in the coastal region can be attributed to the differences in the timing of the onset of sea and land breeze circulations in the simulations as compared to the observations. Errors are relatively smaller in the offshore locations.

An overview of UAE2 flight operations: Observations of summertime atmospheric thermodynamic and aerosol profiles of the southern Arabian Gulf

“…The land/sea breeze adds significant complexity to the coastal flow patterns, which we believe ultimately influence much of the aerosol vertical distribution. A discussion of the land/sea breeze climatology, and model simulations of the SAG during UAE 2 can be found in Eager et al [2007Eager et al [ , 2008. For the case presented here, offshore flow developed at night in response to a pressure gradient between the cooler land surface (26 -29°C) and the warmer AG water ($30°C).…”

“…Flow patterns for these cases can be seen in the mesoscale Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS ® ) (COAMPS ® is a registered trademark of the United States Naval Research Laboratory) midday flow pattern overlaid on the MODIS Aqua RGB image for the 3 October 2004 flight in Figure 4f (see Eager et al [2007] for complete details on the COAMPS ® performance for the UAE 2 mission). The COAMPS ® simulations follow the climatology assessment of Heishman [1999] and hence we treat this case as typical.…”

“…Given that the AG is essentially an inland sea surrounded by deserts, this regime is likely remnants of an upwind desert planetary boundary layer. Figure 4f (see Eager et al [2007] for complete details on the COAMPS 1 performance for the UAE 2 mission). The COAMPS 1 simulations follow the climatology assessment of Heishman [1999] and hence we treat this case as typical.…”

Development of a dust source database for mesoscale forecasting in southwest Asia

“…[57] The U.S. Navy's mesoscale meteorological system COAMPS, coupled with a dust aerosol module, has been used for operational weather and dust storm forecasts for southwest Asia at FNMOC [Eager et al, 2007;Liu et al, 2007;Nachamkin and Hodur, 2000;Shi et al, 2004]. COAMPS is a nonhydrostatic and compressible dynamic model.…”