A Security Situation Prediction Model for Industrial Control Network Based on Explainable Belief Rule Base

Abstract

Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) are vital components of industrial production, and their security posture significantly impacts operational safety. Given that ICSs frequently interact with external networks, cyberattacks can disrupt system symmetry, thereby affecting industrial processes. This paper aims to predict the network security posture of ICSs to ensure system symmetry. A prediction model for the network security posture of ICSs was established utilizing Evidence Reasoning (ER) and Explainable Belief Rule Base (BRB-e) technologies. Initially, an evaluation framework for the ICS architecture was constructed, integrating data from various layers using ER. The development of the BRB prediction model requires input from domain experts to set initial parameters; however, the subjective nature of these settings may reduce prediction accuracy. To address this issue, an ICS network security posture prediction model based on the Explainable Belief Rule Base (BRB-e) was proposed. The modeling criteria for explainability were defined based on the characteristics of the ICS network, followed by the design of the inference process for the BRB-e prediction model to enhance accuracy and precision. Additionally, a parameter optimization method for the explainable BRB-e prediction model is presented using a constrained Projection Equilibrium Optimization (P-EO) algorithm. Experiments utilizing industrial datasets were conducted to validate the reliability and effectiveness of the prediction model. Comparative analyses indicated that the BRB-e model demonstrates distinct advantages in both prediction accuracy and explainability when compared to other algorithms.