Determining rock mass mechanical parameters and accurately predicting tunnel deformation during tunnel construction remain challenging tasks. This study introduces a novel approach to calculate the Geological Strength Index by integrating indoor rock mechanics tests with geometric data from three-dimensional dense reconstruction. We utilized the Hoek-Brown strength criterion to develop a theoretical model for predicting tunnel deformation in fractured rock masses. Case studies reveal that the average value of Geological Strength Index for the Xiamen highway tunnel’s surrounding rock is 44. With support from the lining structure equivalent to 0.002–0.02 times the initial in-situ stress, the plastic zone thickness decreased by approximately 50%, and radial displacement was reduced by about 40%. Enhancing the lining structure’s support pressure significantly reduces the plastic zone radius and radial displacement. As the Geological Strength Index decreases, the nonlinearity between support pressure and plastic zone radius becomes more pronounced, with a similar trend observed for the relationship between support pressure and tunnel radial displacement. The relative deviation between predicted and measured values did not exceed 1.69%. The method accurately captures the effects of rock fragmentation and tunnel construction on plastic zone formation and displacement, offering an effective approach for the rapid and secure assessment of rock tunnel excavation stability using digital technology.