A Sensitivity Study of High-Resolution Climate Simulations for Greece

Politi, Nadia; Sfetsos, Athanasios; Vlachogiannis, Diamando; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Karozis, Stelios

doi:10.3390/cli8030044

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…The solar climate atlas is established using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model (v3.6.1) [22], forced by ERA-INTERIM [23] for the historic period and EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) [24], for the same historic and future (2020-2044) periods, dynamically downscaled to the region of Greece at a scale of 5 × 5 km 2 [18,19]. EC-Earth is an Earth System Model (ESM) closely aligned with the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, hence benefiting from its continuous updates.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seven simulations were run using spectral nudging above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and only over the coarse domain. The model physics configuration and extensive validation for temperatures and precipitation are presented in [18].…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper aims to establish very high-resolution solar climate maps for Greece accounting for the impacts of climate change, assessing both annual and seasonal characteristics, using a high-resolution climate modeling approach. The solar climate atlas is produced using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model (WRF-ARW), forced by ERA-INTERIM for the historic period and EC-EARTH for the historic and future (2020-2044) period at a scale of 5 × 5 km 2 [18,19]. The medium stabilization Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and the high-end scenario (RCP 8.5) are selected for this analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

et al. 2020

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In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km2 spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction fclear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

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Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

et al. 2020

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“…More speci cally, the primary studies included primarily an extensive analysis of sensitivity tests of seven different combinations of physics parameterization schemes, initialization times, and domain resolutions for one year for the selection of the ve best setups on representing surface variables (Politi et al 2017). These selected schemes of setups were further investigated in the work of (Politi et al 2020) for a period of ve years to nally obtain the optimal con guration of the model setup for long-term simulations. The most recent study (Politi et al 2021) investigated the performance of the WRF model to dynamically downscale the coarseresolution ERA-Interim dataset to the high spatial resolution of 5 km grid over the area of Greece for the period of 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

Politi

Vlachogiannis

Sfetsos

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The present study investigated future temperature and precipitation changes over Greece using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was driven by EC-EARTH output in the domain of Greece at very high resolution for the historical period (1980–2004), along with projected simulations, in the near future (2025–2049) and far future (2075-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Climatic variables were produced at 5-km grid spacing and 6-h interval. The historical simulation was evaluated against the available station observations. The analysis showed that the model underestimated the maximum temperatures and slightly overestimated the minimum temperatures. Also, the model simulated a small dry bias in precipitation with an excellent representation of the spatial patterns. The model projections for temperature under the two emission scenarios compared to the historical simulation revealed a robust magnitude of future warming with the most pronounced changes predominantly over the eastern areas of the country under the RCP8.5 in the far future. Projected precipitation changes were more evident in the far future with an overall decrease of the annual precipitation all over the eastern part of the country (with islands included) with the most dramatic reductions (above 40%) of seasonal precipitation observed under RCP8.5. Increases in the number of hot days were found everywhere with more pronounced changes over the plain areas under RCP8.5 in the far future. Significant increases of dry days were projected over the eastern part of the mainland and more intensely under RCP8.5 in the far future.

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“…The proposed process/methodology is the result of action research carried out in a specific oil refinery installation in Greece. For the estimation of the likelihood of extreme weather events, the climate risk assessment relied on the availability of accurate information on climate dynamics, as provided by the downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), a very high resolution climate model [39,40], which can be easily modified appropriately for different geographical contexts. In this context, the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) future climate scenarios were developed for the specific region where the facilities of the focal organization are located, over the mid-term period up to 2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating Future Climate Scenarios in Oil Industry’s Risk Assessment: A Greek Refinery Case Study

et al. 2021

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The impacts of climate change are anticipated to become stronger in the future, leading to higher costs and more severe accidents in the oil industry’s facilities and surrounding communities. Motivated by this, the main objective of this paper is to develop, for the oil industry, a risk assessment methodology that considers future climate projections. In the context of an action research effort, carried out in a refinery in Greece, we adapted the organization’s extant risk management approach based on the Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) and suggested a risk quantification process that incorporates future climate projections. The Climate Risk Assessment Matrix (CRAM) was developed to be used to assess the exposure of the facility’s assets, including human resources, to future climate risks. To evaluate CRAM, a comparison with RAM for the specific organization for the period 1980–2004 was made. Next, the application of CRAM for the period 2025–2049 indicated that, even though the resilience of the operations of the company to extreme conditions seems adequate at present, increased attention should be paid in the future to the resilience of refinery processes, the cooling system, and human resources. Beyond the specific case, the paper provides lessons for similar organizations and infrastructures located elsewhere.

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A Sensitivity Study of High-Resolution Climate Simulations for Greece

Cited by 22 publications

References 84 publications

High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

Incorporating Future Climate Scenarios in Oil Industry’s Risk Assessment: A Greek Refinery Case Study

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