A sequential dynamic choice model to simulate demand in evacuation conditions

Abstract

When a dangerous event occurs, a variety of events affects the system characteristics of users and of the transportation network in the time. Dynamic models allow us to simulate variation in choice probability from one time to another, considering temporal evolution of user characteristics and of dangerous event. Among dynamic models, sequential dynamic discrete choice models represent a special class and are proposed in this work to simulate evacuation conditions. Sequential tests are introduced to validate the proposed model and in order to ascertain whether current decisions are directly influenced by the most recent previous decisions. Sequential tests are specified for evacuation condition simulation and allow us to assess the significance of the reduction in uncertainty.

The role of demand models in evacuation

“…They postulate that this joint decision is an issue that is considered repeatedly prior to it being taken. In Russo and Chilà [7,37] dynamic approaches are proposed to simulate user decisions in evacuation conditions. Among dynamic models, sequential dynamic discrete choice models [37,38] represent a special class and are proposed with sequential tests to ascertain whether current decisions are directly influenced by the most recent previous decisions, also in emergency conditions.…”

An aggregate approach to simulate evacuation of a building

“…Its main objective is to reduce the number of people (and/or goods) present in the area where the event strikes [4]. Evacuation drills are mainly performed to practice the people to leave the interested area; these tests can also be used for getting information concerning the behavior of the people in order to build a set of mathematical models able to reproduce the evacuation.…”

Within-day traffic assignment and signal setting in road evacuation: a procedure with explicit path enumeration

“…The general objective is risk reduction in urban areas in terms of exposure [1]. Specifi c research lines concern travel demand models [2][3][4], planning processes and guidelines [5][6][7], route design for emergency vehicles [8][9][10], transport supply and travel demand-supply interaction [11].…”

“…The general objective is risk reduction in urban areas in terms of exposure [1]. Specifi c research lines concern travel demand models [2][3][4], planning processes and guidelines [5][6][7], route design for emergency vehicles [8][9][10], transport supply and travel demand-supply interaction [11].In the sphere of the last research line, we developed a framework for signal setting design of road intersections with endogenous estimation of path fl ows [12]. The framework has two main components: (i) an optimization procedure for signal setting design [13] and (ii) a within-day simulation procedure to capture the effects of signal setting modifi cation on path choice behaviour presented in this paper.…”