A simple cognitive method to improve the prediction of matters of taste by exploiting the within-person wisdom-of-crowd effect

Fujisaki, Itsuki; Honda, Hidehito; Ueda, Kazuhiro

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-16584-7

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Note that previous research can be classified into two directions. First, some studies have attempted to extend the wisdom of the inner crowd to other tasks 24 – 27 , 35 . For example, a previous study 27 showed that an individual could improve performance evaluations of matters for which there is no objective truth (for other examples, see social projection 25 and self-deception 26 ) by using this method.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, it is well-known that an individual can access various forms of cognition by considering others’ perspectives, called “perspective-taking” 32 , 33 . Perspective-taking enables a person to decrease stereotypic biases 34 , change preferential values 35 , and reduce egocentric thinking 36 . Therefore, we primarily decided to follow the perspective-taking paradigm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

Fujisaki

Yang

Ueda

2023

Sci Rep

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Researchers have shown that even an individual can produce the wisdom of the crowds, called “the wisdom of the inner crowd.” However, the previous methods leave room for improvements in terms of efficacy and response time. This paper proposes a more efficient method, which required a short time, based on findings from cognitive and social psychology. The procedure is to ask participants to give two answers to the same question: first, their own estimate and, second, their estimate of public opinion. Experiments using this method showed that the averages of the two estimates were more accurate than the participants’ first estimates. That is, the wisdom of the inner crowd elicited. In addition, we found that the method could be superior to other methods in terms of efficacy and convenience. Moreover, we identified the conditions where our method worked better. We further clarify the availability and limitations of using the wisdom of the inner crowd. Overall, this paper proposes an effective and short-time method for harvesting the wisdom of the inner crowd.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

Fujisaki

Yang

Ueda

2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In particular, it is well-known that an individual can access various forms of cognition by considering others' perspectives, called 'perspective-taking' 31,32 . Perspective-taking enables a person to decrease stereotypic biases 33 , change preferential values 34 , and reduce egocentric thinking 35 . Therefore, we primarily decided to follow the perspective-taking paradigm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

Fujisaki

Yang

Ueda

2022

Preprint

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Researchers have shown that even an individual can produce the wisdom of the crowds, called ‘the wisdom of the inner crowd’. However, the previous methods leave room for improvements in terms of efficacy and convenience. This paper proposes a more efficient method with low cognitive cost, based on findings from cognitive and social psychology. The procedure is to ask participants to give two answers to the same question: first, their own estimate and, second, their estimate of public opinion. Experiments using this method showed that the averages of the two estimates were more accurate than the participants’ first estimates. That is, the wisdom of the inner crowd emerged. In addition, we found that the method could be superior to other methods in terms of efficacy and convenience. Moreover, we identified the conditions where our method worked better. We further clarify the limitations of using the wisdom of the inner crowd, including people’s tendency to fall into overconfidence. Overall, this paper proposes an effective and convenient method for harvesting the wisdom of the inner crowd.

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Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd

Gomilsek,

Hoffrage,

Marewski

2024

Sci Rep

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How can people’s ability to make accurate estimations be boosted? Psychological research on the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd suggests that people’s judgments improve when they use a simple consider-the-opposite-strategy, dubbed—inspired by Enlightenment philosopher Hegel—dialectical-bootstrapping: A person generates a first estimate (thesis), then rejects it and generates another one (anti-thesis), and finally integrates both (synthesis). Yet, the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd-phenomenon comes with controversy concerning its measurement, robustness, and moderators. We (1) introduce a novel class of strategies to elicit the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd. These strategies root in physics, where Nobel-laureate Enrico Fermi used back-of-the-envelope guesstimation, for instance, when assessing the explosive yield of the first tested nuclear bomb. Fermian strategies prescribe decomposing an estimation problem into subtasks, solving the subtasks separately, and ultimately integrating those solutions into a final estimate. In an experiment using a new task-environment, we find (2) that a similarity-based Fermian-strategy boosts the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd even more than consider-the-opposite does, (3) that the provision of a memory aid differentially affects those two strategies’ performance, and (4) that data trimming matters. Moreover, and for the first time, we document (5) overprecision in wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd estimations. Finally, we (6) replicate previous results, including that the collective intelligence of two persons still outperforms asking oneself twice.

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A simple cognitive method to improve the prediction of matters of taste by exploiting the within-person wisdom-of-crowd effect

Cited by 4 publications

References 52 publications

On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

On an effective and efficient method for exploiting the wisdom of the inner crowd

Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd

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