A simple model for estimating the sensitivity of runoff to long-term changes in precipitation without a change in vegetation

Dooge, J. C. I.; Bruen, Michael; Parmentier, Benoît

doi:10.1016/s0309-1708(99)00019-6

Cited by 223 publications

(177 citation statements)

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“…However in the post-change period, the difference between Yanchi runoff and water abstracted was near zero, which resulted in zero streamflow at Sanjiadian. Despite the drying of Sanjiadian from 1980 to 2010, we identified an abrupt change point in the streamflow record separating 1980-1999because of higher Guanting outflow in 1980-1999 This result suggests the upstream flow reductions in the post-change period, likely from increased human activities, reduced Guanting outflow. The decline in Guanting outflow reduced Yanchi runoff, which caused the prolonged zero flow below Sanjiadian in the postchange period.…”

Section: Influence Of Precipitation On Streamflow Decline and Potentimentioning

confidence: 73%

“…However the most probable change-points in the streamflow time-series at all stations match the start years of Beijing's most recent drought (Table 5). From 1980 to 2010, Beijing suffered two official droughts (defined as significant reduction in precipitation from the mean long-term value of 585 mm) in: (1) the 1980s and (2) 1999-2007(Probe, 2010. Mean annual precipitation at the three stations from 1980 to 2010 were 36.8% (Guanting Reservoir), 24.3% (Yanchi), and 5.6% (Sanjiadian) lower than the long-term mean annual precipitation in Beijing.…”

Section: Precipitation and Streamflow Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, simulating runoff using hydrologic models often requires extensive datasets and tedious operations. Hydrologic sensitivity analysis calculates the percent change in mean annual runoff due to changes in mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) (Dooge et al, 1999;Milly and Dunne, 2002). Jones et al (2006) estimated the percent change in mean annual runoff under different climate scenarios for 22 Australian catchments by calculating the hydrologic sensitivity of rainfall-runoff models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Jiang

Wong

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

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s u m m a r yIn recent decades, the Yongding River in Beijing has ceased to flow due to the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors, which has led to severe environmental degradation. The Beijing government is constructing new freshwater ecosystems on the Yongding River to improve environmental conditions for ecosystem services. Clarification is needed on the influence of precipitation and anthropogenic factors on streamflow decline in Beijing. A hydrological time-series analysis was conducted on recorded streamflow at Guanting Reservoir, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian to estimate the influence of precipitation variability on the drying of the Yongding River in Beijing. From 1980 to 2010, the mean annual rates of streamflow decline were 0.44 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Guanting), 0.42 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Yanchi), and 0.03 m 3 s À1 yr À1 (Sanjiadian). The most probable abrupt change-point for annual streamflow was 1999 at Guanting Reservoir and Yanchi, and was 2000 at Sanjiadian. Between the pre-change (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999) and post-change (2000-2010) periods, mean annual streamflow decreased by 68.56% (Guanting), 66.92% (Yanchi), and 96.78% (Sanjiadian). A multiple regression analysis using annual precipitation and streamflow at Guanting, Yanchi, and Sanjiadian showed an insignificant relationship between local precipitation and streamflow in both periods. Next we assessed the potential impact of upstream human activities on downstream flow using: (1) correlation statistics between upstream flow and downstream flow, (2) water abstracted above Sanjiadian, and (3) upstream socioeconomic data. The results suggest upstream human activities are important drivers on downstream flow decline, which could possibly explain the weak relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Further analysis is needed to clarify the influence of upstream water consumption on Guanting Reservoir to advise management on the new freshwater ecosystems along the Yongding River.

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Section: Influence Of Precipitation On Streamflow Decline and Potentimentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Precipitation and Streamflow Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Jiang

Wong

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

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“…The terms ε P and ε E 0 are the climate elasticity coefficients of runoff to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, respectively. According to the Budyko hypothesis, the values of ε P and ε E 0 can be estimated as follows (Dooge et al 1999, Arora 2002):…”

Section: Analytical Methods To Separate the Effects Of Climate Change mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among these methods, the analytical derivation method based on Budyko's hypothesis is clear in its theory and requires less input data (Yang and Yang 2011). The method has been widely used in previous studies and is useful for evaluating the impacts of climate change and human activities (Dooge et al 1999, Arora 2002, Zheng et al 2009, Li et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing, China

Xia

Zeng

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water-energy balance equations with the PenmanMonteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5-12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4-89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.Key words climate change; human activities; runoff; Yongding River basin, China Quantification des effets du changement climatique et des activités humaines sur l'écoulement dans la zone d'alimentation en eau de Pékin, Chine Résumé L'évaluation quantitative des effets du changement climatique et des activités humaines sur l'écoulement est très important pour une gestion durable et adaptative des ressources en eau régionales. Dans cette étude, le test non paramétrique de Mann-Kendall a été utilisé pour identifier les tendances et les sauts de l'écoulement annuel afin d'analyser l'évolution des caractéristiques du cycle hydrologique. L'étude présente l'établissement une méthode analytique qui combine six équations de bilan eau-énergie basées sur l'hypothèse de Budiko avec l'équation de Penman-Monteith, pour séparer les effets du changement climatique et ceux des activités humaines. La méthode prend plusieurs variables climatiques en considération. Les résultats basés sur les données du bassin de la rivière Yongding, en Chine, montrent que l'on peut estimer que la réduction de l'écoulement annuel prévu serait due pour 10,5 à 12,6% au changement climatique et pour 87,4 à 89,5% aux activités humaines. Ces résultats indiquent que les activités humaines sont le principal facteur responsable de la réduction de l'écoulement.

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On regionalizing the Turc‐Mezentsev water balance formula

Lebecherel

Andréassian

Perrin

2013

Water Resources Research

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[1] The Turc-Mezentsev water balance formula is a simple and efficient mathematical formulation relating long-term average streamflow to long-term average precipitation and potential evaporation. Usually, it is applied in its original form, i.e., without parameterization. This paper aims to assess the possibilities of regionalizing this formula for improved efficiency on ungaged catchments. Four regionalization options are compared based on: (i) the relative error, (ii) the arithmetic difference, (iii) the correcting factor of the aridity index, and (iv) the shape factor. The four alternatives are assessed in terms of efficiency and robustness on a large set of 609 French catchments. We show that introducing a correcting factor of the aridity index provides the best regionalization solution.Citation: Lebecherel, L., V. Andreassian, and C. Perrin (2013), On regionalizing the Turc-Mezentsev water balance formula, Water Resour. Res., 49,[7508][7509][7510][7511][7512][7513][7514][7515][7516][7517]

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A simple model for estimating the sensitivity of runoff to long-term changes in precipitation without a change in vegetation

Cited by 223 publications

References 10 publications

Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Drivers of drying on the Yongding River in Beijing

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing, China

On regionalizing the Turc‐Mezentsev water balance formula

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