A Single-Agent Urban Coastal Adaptation Model: Adaptive decision-making within the VIABLE modeling framework

Sengupta, Shubhankar; Scheffran, Jürgen; Kovalevsky, Dmitry V.

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12752

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…All these approaches have also been actively applied to modeling urban dynamics in general and coastal urban dynamics in particular, including impacts of, and response to, climate change [63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74]. We review the strengths and weaknesses of these modeling approaches, as applied to urban studies, in Section 2.1 below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cities on the Coast and Patterns of Movement between Population Growth and Diffusion

Kovalevsky

Volchenkov

Scheffran

2021

Entropy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea level rise and high-impact coastal hazards due to on-going and projected climate change dramatically affect many coastal urban areas worldwide, including those with the highest urbanization growth rates. To develop tailored coastal climate services that can inform decision makers on climate adaptation in coastal cities, a better understanding and modeling of multifaceted urban dynamics is important. We develop a coastal urban model family, where the population growth and urbanization rates are modeled in the framework of diffusion over the half-bounded and bounded domains, and apply the maximum entropy principle to the latter case. Population density distributions are derived analytically whenever possible. Steady-state wave solutions balancing the width of inhabited coastal zones, with the skewed distributions maximizing population entropy, might be responsible for the coastward migrations outstripping the demographic development of the hinterland. With appropriate modifications of boundary conditions, the developed family of diffusion models can describe coastal urban dynamics affected by climate change.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cities on the Coast and Patterns of Movement between Population Growth and Diffusion

Kovalevsky

Volchenkov

Scheffran

2021

Entropy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

A Two-Period Model of Coastal Urban Adaptation Supported by Climate Services

Kovalevsky

Scheffran

2022

Urban Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coastal zones are experiencing rapid urbanization at unprecedented rates. At the same time, coastal cities are the most prone to climate-related vulnerability, including impacts of sea-level rise and climate-related coastal hazards under the present and projected future climate. Decision making about coastal urban climate adaptation can be informed by coastal climate services based on modeling tools. We develop a two-period coastal urban adaptation model in which two periods—the present and the future—are distinguished. In the model, a city agent anticipates sea-level rise and related coastal flood hazards with adverse impacts in the future period that, through damages, will reduce the urban income. However, the magnitude of future sea-level rise and induced damages are characterized by uncertainty. The urban planning agent has to make an investment decision under uncertainty: whether to invest in climate adaptation (in the form of construction of coastal protection) or not, and if so, how much. The decision making of the urban agent is derived from intertemporal maximization of expected time-discounted consumption. An exact solution in the closed form is derived for an analytically tractable particular case, for which it is shown that investment decisions depend discontinuously on the value of a single non-dimensional model indicator. When this indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, the urban agent discontinuously switches from the ‘business-as-usual’ (BaU) strategy when no adaptation investment is taken to a proactive adaptation. The role of coastal climate services in informing the decision making on adaptation strategies is discussed.

show abstract

A Single-Agent Urban Coastal Adaptation Model: Adaptive decision-making within the VIABLE modeling framework

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Cities on the Coast and Patterns of Movement between Population Growth and Diffusion

Cities on the Coast and Patterns of Movement between Population Growth and Diffusion

A Two-Period Model of Coastal Urban Adaptation Supported by Climate Services

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About