A Socio-economic Metabolism Approach to Sustainable Development and Climate Change Mitigation

Baynes, Tim; Müller, Daniel B.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-20571-7_6

Cited by 48 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The above expectations are based on the 'businessas-usual' case and assuming an expanded use of fossil fuels in developing countries [87]. Such outcomes may be mitigated by progress toward circular economy ideals and the potential for dematerialising consumption [11].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are far fewer global accounts of urban energy use [10] and none regarding urban materials. Material extraction, transport, transformation, use and disposal are intrinsically coupled with the energy and greenhouse gas emissions of concern to the international community [11]. Municipal waste material flows also continue to be a particular concern at the local government level [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Baynes

Musango

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple 'business-as-usual' scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ∼73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ∼90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66-111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5-27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8-17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ∼12 to ∼14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Baynes

Musango

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This constitutes a basic upper limit when managing material flows as part of a resource management strategy (e.g. RT 4,5,6).…”

Section: Resource Saving and Utilization Potentials By Comparing Suppmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Circular economy policies must be based on detailed knowledge of the socio-economic metabolism [5]. This can be obtained through material flow analysis (MFA), which is a "systematic assessment of the flows and stocks of materials within a system defined in space and time" [6], p.3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of anthropogenic metabolism using spatially differentiated continuous MFA

Schiller¹,

Gruhler²,

Ortlepp³

2017

Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems

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Coefficient-based, bottom-up material flow analysis is a suitable tool to quantify inflows, outflows and stock dynamics of materials used by societies, and thus can deliver strategic knowledge needed to develop circular economy policies. Anthropogenic stocks and flows are mostly of bulk nonmetallic mineral materials related to the construction, operation and demolition of buildings and infrastructures. Consequently, it is important to be able to quantify circulating construction materials to help estimate the mass of secondary materials which can be recovered such as recycled aggregates (RA) for fresh concrete in new buildings. Yet as such bulk materials are high volume but of low unit value, they are generally produced and consumed within a region. Loops are thus bounded not only by qualitative and technical restrictions but also spatially to within regions. This paper presents a regionalized continuous MFA (C-MFA) approach taking account of these restrictions of local consumption, quality standards and technical limitations, illustrated using the example of Germany. Outflows and inflows of stocks are quantified at county level and generalized by regional type, considering demand and supply for recycled materials. Qualitative and technical potentials of recycling loops are operationalized by defining coefficients to reflect waste management technologies and engineering standards. Results show that 48% of outflows of concrete and bricks are suitable for high-quality recycling, while 52% of outflows do not fulfill the quality requirement and must be recovered or disposed of elsewhere. The achievable inflow to RA is limited by the building activity as well as the requirements of the construction industry, e.g. the RA fraction of fresh concrete must not exceed 32%. In addition, there exist spatial disparities in construction across the country. In Germany, such disparities mean that there will be a shortfall in RA of 6.3 Gt by the year 2020, while the technically available but unusable RA (due to a regional mismatch of potential supply and demand) will total 3.2 Gt. Comprehensive recycling strategies have to combine high-quality recycling with other lower-grade applications for secondary raw materials. Particularly in the case of building materials, essential constraints are not only technical but also local conditions of construction and demolition. These interrelations should be identified and integrated into a comprehensive system to manage the social metabolism of materials in support of circular economy policies.

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“…When the RCOT logic is included within the WTM [36], the resulting framework provides a realistically broad set of technology choices, namely among different options within each region as well as across all regions. The WTM and the RCOT model have been implemented in a variety of empirical inquiries regarding specific aspects of sustainable development [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46].…”

Section: Comparative Advantagementioning

confidence: 99%

Resources for Sustainable Economic Development: A Framework for Evaluating Infrastructure System Alternatives

Duchin

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:We are at an early stage of a massive global build-up of public infrastructure. Long lifetimes, high money costs and resource-intensity, and the rippling effects of the built environment on all aspects of daily life call for informed public conversation about the available choices before they become a fait accompli. Substantial literatures address the phenomenon in terms of economic development, resource scarcities, impacts on climate and ecosystems, technological options, human rights, funding sources, system governance, inter-governmental agreements. This paper describes a modeling framework that integrates some of these concerns about the differential impacts of large-scale centralized infrastructure systems, smaller-scale decentralized systems, and hybrid combinations. Building on existing collaborations between economists and engineers, the paper proposes a case-study research strategy to organize new types of technical information to supplement existing databases of the world economy. The paper describes needed model extensions to estimate money costs, resource requirements, resource recovery potential, and jobs and livelihoods under alternative infrastructure assumptions. The agenda supports the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by identifying and evaluating globally relevant alternative infrastructure designs. The SDG process, in turn, provides both the global network and the concern to promote local development to which the proposed effort aims to contribute.

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A Socio-economic Metabolism Approach to Sustainable Development and Climate Change Mitigation

Cited by 48 publications

References 35 publications

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Quantification of anthropogenic metabolism using spatially differentiated continuous MFA

Resources for Sustainable Economic Development: A Framework for Evaluating Infrastructure System Alternatives

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