A Space Weather mission concept: Observatories of the Solar Corona and Active Regions (OSCAR)

Strugarek, Antoine; Janitzek, Nils; Lee, Arrow; Löschl, Philipp; Seifert, Bernhard; Hoilijoki, Sanni; Kraaikamp, E.; Mrigakshi, Alankrita Isha; Philippe, Thomas; Spina, Sheila; Bröse, Malte; Massahi, Sonny; O’Halloran, Liam; Blanco, Victor Pereira; Stausland, Christoffer; Escoubet, Philippe; Kargl, Günter

doi:10.1051/swsc/2015003

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…For example, a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as a second coronagraph viewpoint would reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint. For example, Akioka et al (2005), Simunac et al (2009), Gopalswamy et al (2011), Strugarek, Antoine et al (2015, Vourlidas (2015), Lavraud et al (2016), and Weinzierl et al (2016) all identify the potential benefit of an L5 mission. Lavraud et al (2016) proposes an L5 mission that would measure the coronal magnetic field using a polarization technique, in addition to white-light imaging.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of real-time WSA−ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

Wold

Mays

Taktakishvili

et al. 2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4±0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015. There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited twoviewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of real-time WSA−ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

Wold

Mays

Taktakishvili

et al. 2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…Strugarek et al. (2015) proposed a pair of >500 kg spacecraft carrying remote sensing and in situ instrumentation. A single launch would put both in heliocentric drift orbits, but they did not specify what propulsion system would provide the necessary delta‐V such that one leads Earth by 34° and the other lags Earth by the same amount.…”

Section: L4 Mission Architecturementioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Posner¹,

Arge

Staub

et al. 2021

Space Weather

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The Earth-Sun Lagrangian point 4 is a meta-stable location at 1 au from the Sun, 60° ahead of Earth's orbit. It has an uninterrupted view of the solar photosphere centered on W60, the Earth's nominal magnetic field connection to the Sun. Such a mission on its own would serve as a solar remote sensing observatory that would oversee the entire solar radiation hemisphere with significant relevance for protecting Moon and Mars explorers from radiation exposure. In combination with appropriately planned observatories at L1 and L5, the three spacecraft would provide 300° longitude coverage of photospheric magnetic field structure, and allow continuous viewing of both solar poles, with >3.6° elevation. Ideally, the L4 and L5 missions would orbit the Sun with a 7.2° inclination out of the heliographic equator, 14.5° out of the ecliptic plane. We discuss the impact of extending solar magnetic field observations in both longitude and latitude to improve global solar wind modeling and, with the development of local helioseismology, the potential for long-term solar activity forecasting. Such a mission would provide a unique opportunity for interplanetary and interstellar dust science. It would significantly add to reliability of operational observations on fast coronal mass ejections directed at Earth and for human Mars explorers on their round-trip journey. The L4 mission concept is technically feasible, and is scientifically compelling. Section 1: IntroductionSpace weather (SWx) forecasting is a complex problem, spanning vastly different regions of space and involving several scientific disciplines within and beyond Heliophysics. The main pillar that all SWx forecasts rely on is rapid availability of sets of observations of the Sun and inner heliosphere measured on the ground and on space platforms. Budgetary realism dictates the locations of observatories and their instrumentation to be chosen carefully so they address short-term needs and lead to long-term improvements.It is important to note that much of the underlying physics of space weather is not yet understood. This includes, to name just a subset of phenomena, the initiation of flares and coronal mass ejections, the acceleration of the solar wind and that of particles to high energies. At the time of writing, the Parker Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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“…A continuous view of the solar poles is particularly compelling, both for space-weather monitoring and for establishing the nature of the solar dynamo. There are also mission concepts that would provide new insights while stopping short of full 4π coverage, such as an early-warning system at the Earth-Sun L5 point (e.g., Pevtsov et al 2016), or a two-spacecraft system that would improve upon STEREO's initial exploration of stereoscopic imaging (Strugarek et al 2015). Sustained multi-vantage observations of the photospheric magnetic field, the inner boundary of the heliosphere, has transformative potential.…”

Section: Observational Improvementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

2017

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The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, streamstream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress-in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory-that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.

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A Space Weather mission concept: Observatories of the Solar Corona and Active Regions (OSCAR)

Cited by 10 publications

References 45 publications

Verification of real-time WSA−ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

Verification of real-time WSA−ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

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