A spatial simulation model for karst rocky desertification combining top‐down and bottom‐up approaches

Abstract

Karst rocky desertification (KRD) is a serious ecological and environmental issue threatening southwestern China. The evolution of KRD calls for predicting its potential expansion or contraction, to support policy‐making for combating KRD. A spatial model named ‘SDKRD’ for simulating KRD dynamics was developed in this study. The novelty of it is the ability to explore spatially local KRD evolution and integrate this information into a global estimation. The SDKRD model consists of three modules: a global KRD forecast and scenario setting, a local exploration of spatially varying effects of driving forces and neighbourhood influence on KRD evolution, and an iteration module for combining results of aforementioned modules. The SDKRD model was tested in the Changshun County as a case‐study. The accuracy assessment confirmed a spatially visual consistency and a robust statistical result. Spatial KRD maps from 2010 to 2030 were simulated under three scenarios. The historical extrapolation scenario found a spatially global KRD reversion and locally scattered KRD deterioration. Different KRD restoration strategies under the other two scenarios could reverse the transformation of KRD classes at different magnitudes. Intermediate classes in the KRD evolution process could be more easily reversed. Under three scenarios with the increased strength of KRD management measures, areas of no KRD increased by 8.7%, 13.5%, and 16.6%, and areas of moderate KRD decreased by 38.3%, 53.0%, and 53.9%, respectively. SDKRD model presents specific KRD evolution trajectories and visualizes the KRD transformation at each location, which can help find cost‐effective ways of combating KRD with differentiated strategies.

Human–desertification coupling relationship in a karst region of China

“…The statistical significance of C ks and I K$S in this proposed model could also be further tested. Given the complex coupling relationship between KRD and social-economic development measured in this study, it is suggested that these be incorporated into model simulations for KRD succession and socialeconomic development (Abdollahian et al, 2015;Helldén, 2008;Xu & Zhang, 2018). In particular, the inverted U-shaped curve for C ks as a function of different urbanization levels should be considered for improving the model's accuracy.…”

Exploring the adaptive mechanism of Passiflora edulis in karst areas via an integrative analysis of nutrient elements and transcriptional profiles

“…As one of the most fragile terrestrial ecosystems [5, 6], Karst landforms are especially developed and widespread in soluble rock areas, such as the Nullarbor Plain in Australia, the Western Highland Rim in the United States, and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in China. In Southwest China, Karst rocky desertification has become a serious threat to local agriculture, forestry, and livestock husbandry [7, 8], and Karst soils have poor water-holding capacity and nutrient cycling ability. The new P. edulis variety ‘Pingtang 1’ is widely cultivated in the Karst areas of Guizhou.…”

Quantitative Analysis of the Influencing Factors and Their Interactions in Runoff Generation in a Karst Basin of Southwestern China

“…Furthermore, the degeneration of water conservation services further aggravated environmental degradation [6]. In particular, the vulnerable karst ecosystem, with its special geological conditions [7], has been affected by external environmental impact and has suffered serious vegetation degradation, and gave rise to rocky desertification [8][9][10]. Among them, water and soil loss are the core problem of rocky desertification formation [11].…”