A spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities according to population resistance and resilience, species importance and level of threat in a changing climate

Abstract

Aim: Human-induced climate change requires conservation strategies incorporating its potential effects on species and communities. Key components of population persistence can be attributed to resistance (the capacity to remain unaffected) or resilience (capacity to absorb and recover) to climate change. In situ climatic refugia can act as resistant distribution units, and ex situ climatic refugia and the corridors to reach them may enhance resilience. We develop a novel approach selecting conservation priorities, resistant units and resilient areas according to structural connectivity and future distribution, to identify strategies that maximize the chances of species persistence in a changing climate. Location: Italian Alps.Methods: Conservation priorities were defined across species according to the regional conservation status and the level of threat from climate change, and across sites according to their suitability for target species and their related potential for population persistence (in situ climatic refugia, i.e., resistant units) or redistribution (ex situ climatic refugia and main corridors according to current and future connectivity, i.e., resilient units).Results: Models suggested a marked loss of suitable area for all species by 2050 (ranging from ~50% for pygmy owl and water pipit, to 84% for snowfinch in the worst scenario), and a general loss of connectivity, which was particularly marked for pygmy owl and snowfinch. The approach applied to Alpine birds of different habitats led to a spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities. Main conclusions:The spatial definition of conservation priorities according to species (regional importance and level of threat), resistance and resilience refines the definition of management/conservation priorities (including protected area definition), complementing the existing approaches to address climate change-induced threats in planning conservation and ecological networks. K E Y W O R D SAlps, birds, distribution, ecological connectivity, global warming, spatial planning

Past and future impact of climate change on foraging habitat suitability in a high-alpine bird species: Management options to buffer against global warming effects

“…Climate change can threaten Alpine species to such an extent that the large-scale distribution of species like the snowfinch could shrink considerably (Brambilla et al, 2017a;Maggini et al, 2014). Our study demonstrates a high sensitivity of the snowfinch towards climate-induced alteration of microhabitat conditions, notably in snow cover and sward, shedding light on the possible mechanistic causes behind the ongoing range contraction of this and other cold-loving species (Scridel et al, 2017) .…”

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

“…Data were collected both via research projects and citizen science initiatives: (a) during previous surveys carried out within the framework of different projects (e.g. Brambilla et al, ; Brambilla et al, ; Mihelič et al, ; Vrezec & Mihelič, ; Vrezec & Tome, , ); (b) via online platforms (http://www.ornitho.ch, http://www.ornitho.at, http://www.ornitho.it), after official requests specifying the aims of the study. Data were from the study area and from neighbouring sites (i.e.…”

New concepts, models, and assessments of climate-wise connectivity

“…By focusing on climate adaptation zones, benefit for species adaptation is maximized and the amount of land required to be protected is minimized (Vos et al 2010). Similarly, Brambilla et al (2017) took the approach of prioritizing habitat areas with more stable climate space (in-situ refugia) and adding habitat areas predicted to become suitable (ex-situ refugia) as well as connectivity areas for a set of alpine bird species to ultimately protect areas that will function for these species into the future.…”

“…When these models are combined with dispersal models, connections to ex-situ refugia can be modeled for particular species (Vos et al 2008). Mapping refugia can be applied to protected area prioritization, optimizing networks of in-situ refugia, as well as guide management decisions with respect to increasing connectivity to facilitate colonization of new habitat (Vos et al 2008, Pellatt et al 2012, Brambilla et al 2017.…”