A Static CGE Model of the Mongolian Economy

Galindev, Ragchaasuren; Baatarzorig, Tsolmon; Bayarjargal, Munkh-Ireedui; Nyamdorj, Nasantogtokh; Tur, Telmen; Batdelger, Tuvshintugs

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3167341

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 6 publications

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“…The PEP 1–1 model is described fully in Decaluwé et al . (2013), and the SAM is discussed in Galindev et al (2016). In brief, however, the main specifications of the model and key figures from the SAM follow.…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of ups and downs of the Mongolian mining sector

2018

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The economy of Mongolia, a country rich in natural resources, is increasingly dependent upon the mining sector. International prices of mining commodities have been highly volatile in recent years. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine the short-term effects on the Mongolian economy of two scenarios: (1) a moderate boom in the coal market; and (2) a drop in the world price of metal ores. It is found that the Dutch disease effect generated by the shocks is insignificant given the structure of the economy (e.g., small export shares and low export intensity of manufacturing and agriculture commodities) and a labor market condition with high unemployment. Since the economy is largely dependent upon on the mining sector, the impacts of the shocks are jarring, implying that the government must abide by its fiscal rules for stable growth and prosperity.

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Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of ups and downs of the Mongolian mining sector

2018

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Mining Booms and Sustainable Economic Growth in Mongolia—Empirical Result from Recursive Dynamic CGE Model

2019

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This research aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Mongolia, a country that is increasingly dependent upon its mining sector. The study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the long-term effects on the economy with three sets of scenarios: (1) a moderate boom in the productivity of agriculture, manufacturing, coal mining and coal service sectors; (2) a drop in the world price of coal and metal ores; and (3) the combination of these two scenarios. We assume that these shocks are seismic, and the findings are important for policymakers to implement policy to deal with the negative impact of mining booms. Our study result shows that reinvestment in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors could help to mitigate the resource curse, and suggests that suitable macroeconomic management and prudent administration of the mining sector’s windfall income are important.

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A Static CGE Model of the Mongolian Economy

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Effects of ups and downs of the Mongolian mining sector

Effects of ups and downs of the Mongolian mining sector

Mining Booms and Sustainable Economic Growth in Mongolia—Empirical Result from Recursive Dynamic CGE Model

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