A Statistical Analysis of TIR Anomalies extracted by RST in Relation with Earthquake in Sichuan Area with Use of MODIS LST Data

Abstract

There is a long history for research of earthquake prediction, but weakness of traditional approaches to study seismic hazard have been more and more evident. Remote sensing and earth observation technology, which is a new method that can instantly acquire a large area of abnormal information caused by earthquakes, is believed to be the key to the breakthrough of the bottleneck 10 in the study of earthquake prediction. A multi-parametric approach seems, instead, to be the most promising approach in order to increase reliability and precision of short-term seismic hazard forecast, and Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomaly is an important part of the earthquake precursors. Though many scientists have studied the correlation among TIR anomalies identified by the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) methodology and single earthquake, there is few study to extract the TIR 15 anomalies in long period and large study area. Moreover, a statistical analysis of TIR anomalies in relation with earthquake is needed to determine whether there is the existence of TIR anomalies before earthquake. In this paper, a refined RST data analysis and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to extract the TIR anomalies from 2002 to 2018 in Sichuan area with use of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Land Surface 20 Temperature (LST), and the earthquake catalog were also used to study the correlation between TIR anomalies and occurrences of earthquake. Most of the thermal infrared anomalies correspond to earthquakes, and statistical methods are used to prove that there is a correlation between the extracted thermal infrared anomalies and earthquakes. And this is the first time to evaluate earthquakes prediction ability with use of PPV, FDR, TPR and FNR, the statistical result shows that 25 the prediction ability of RST in Sichuan area is limited.

Coarse-graining research of the thermal infrared anomalies before earthquakes in the Sichuan area on Google Earth engine

“…Although many LST products have been used in earthquake prediction (e.g., Terra/Aqua moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), national oceanic and atmospheric administration-advanced very-highresolution radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) and Landsat), MODIS LST data are the most products used till now with spatial resolution of 1 km and temporal resolution of daily scales (Wan, 2014, 6;Bhardwaj et al, 2017). Researchers have conducted several long-term statistical studies to demonstrate the correlation between TIR anomalies and earthquakes (Zhang and Meng, 2018;Genzano et al, 2021). Once the statistical correlation between earthquake precursors and earthquakes is determined, the next step is to elucidate the mechanism of the generation of pre-earthquake signals.…”

“…(Blackett et al, 2011;Qin et al, 2012;Zoran, 2012). The robust satellite techniques (RST) approach has been widely implemented for environmental problems such as seismic anomaly detection, volcano monitoring, and oil spill events (Zhang and Meng, 2018;Eleftheriou et al, 2021;Filizzola et al, 2022;Genzano et al, 2015;Tramutoli et al, 2018). The RST approach was applied to define and discriminate possible pre-seismic TIR anomalies from other signal variations commonly related to known or unknown natural/observational factors that can be responsible for the" false alarms" proliferation (Wang et al, 2015).…”