1984
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1542:aseotp>2.0.co;2
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

A Statistical Evaluation of the Predictive Abilities of Climatic Averages

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
2
1

Citation Types

0
8
0

Year Published

1986
1986
2025
2025

Publication Types

Select...
6
1

Relationship

0
7

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 15 publications
(8 citation statements)
references
References 0 publications
0
8
0
Order By: Relevance
“…These and later studies showed that a base period of 30 years may not be an optimal choice, but there was no general agreement on what period length should be used. The suggestions varied from 5 up to 25 years (Lamb and Changnon, 1981;Dixon and Shulman, 1984;Kunkel and Court, 1990;Huang et al, 1996), which were also discussed at numerous WMO meetings. WMO Technical Note 84 states that it is essentially impossible to define a uniform time interval as a reference period for all climate elements that is independent of the region: 'a period which may be representative for one place may be totally unrepresentative at another (.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These and later studies showed that a base period of 30 years may not be an optimal choice, but there was no general agreement on what period length should be used. The suggestions varied from 5 up to 25 years (Lamb and Changnon, 1981;Dixon and Shulman, 1984;Kunkel and Court, 1990;Huang et al, 1996), which were also discussed at numerous WMO meetings. WMO Technical Note 84 states that it is essentially impossible to define a uniform time interval as a reference period for all climate elements that is independent of the region: 'a period which may be representative for one place may be totally unrepresentative at another (.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although these means were developed based upon 6-8 years of data, Lamb and Changnon (1981) suggested that 5-year normals are useful climate indicators. Others have proposed using means based upon 15-55 years, depending upon the weather variable and the number of station relocations (Court, 1967(Court, -1968Enger, 1959;Dixon and Shulman, 1984;Sabin and Shulman, 1985).…”
Section: Stmdardization Of Air Temperature and Dew-point Temperaturementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, considerable variation was found to exist both in the optimum length and in prediction error. More recently, Lamb and Changnon (1981), Dixon and Shulman (1984), and Sabin and Shulman (1985) have pursued similar questions regarding the best climatic normal. In aIl cases rectangular averaging has been used, and the debate has centered on the appropriate length of average and how best to measure predictive ability.…”
Section: Climate Predictability and Climatic N M L Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Optimizing the length of a climatic normal is equivalent to fitting a univariate AR model with equal coefficients. The only rationale for uniform weighting is ease of computation, but even this advantage disappears given the complexity of choosing the appropriate number of weights (e.g., Dixon and Shulman 1984). An obvious improvement would be to remove the equal-weight constraint and fit autoregressive or autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models using standard methods, as in Katz and Skaggs (1981).…”
Section: Climate Predictability and Climatic N M L Smentioning
confidence: 99%