A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe

Ritenberga, Olga; Sofiev, M.; Siljamo, Pilvi; Saarto, Annika; Dahl, Åslög; Ekebom, Agneta; Šaulienė, Ingrida; Shalaboda, Valentina; Severova, Elena; Hoebeke, Lucie; Ramfjord, Hallvard

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.061

Cited by 34 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The importance of aerobiological research follows at least two main lineshuman health issues -through pollen allergy (polinosis) (Newson et al 2014;Ring et al 2012), as well as phenology and agriculture as studies of the timing of phenological phases and the productivity of plants (Aguilera and Ruiz-Valenzuela 2014;Orlandi et al 2005). Both lines support the necessity of aerobiological forecasts of pollen and related processes including the start/end of flowering (Ritenberga et al 2016), annual pollen productivity of plants (Ritenberga et al 2018), and the interseasonal fluctuation of pollen depending on meteorological and environmental conditions. Precise forecasting models require data as fresh as possible because one of the most accurate air quality forecasts is the persistence forecast -which states that yesterday's actual situation is the best forecast for today (Sofiev et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

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Tūrisma galamērķu pārvaldības problēmas Latvijā

Klepers¹

2018

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There are about 300 aerobiological monitoring stations in Europe, providing regular observational data on pollen and spore concentration in the air. The data is available with a delay of 1-2 weeks or even more, which makes direct use for model-based forecasting immensely problematic. Automatic real-time pollen monitors are too expensive for massive deployment. Therefore, the primary attention is presently being put either to forecasting models that do not use observations in daily routine or to alternative ways for near real-time equipment for pollen monitoring. One of the solutions is an adaptation of existing air quality equipment for the needs of aerobiological monitoring. This study performs an analysis of the GRIMM monitoring station capability for the afore-mentioned purposes.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

“…Normalization of the data doesn't allow us to evaluate absolute difference and an insufficient amount of data doesn't allow us to define calibration criteria for both devices. So far, the only possibility for absolute value calculation seems to be through the seasonal pollen index as described (Ritenberga et al 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tūrisma galamērķu pārvaldības problēmas Latvijā

Klepers¹

2018

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“…The scheme provides proper mass conservation, shape preservation, and multi-tracer efficiency required from a numerical point of view. Dry deposition of birch pollen particles is determined by gravitational settling (Seinfeld and Pandis, 2006). The gravitational settling parameterization is based on calculation of settling velocity according to Stokes law and taking into account density of birch pollen particles (800 kg m −3 ) and an estimated size of 22 µm (e.g.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of pollen data in source maps is vital for pollen dispersion models

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Information about distribution of pollen sources, i.e. their presence and abundance in a specific region, is important, especially when atmospheric transport models are applied to forecast pollen concentrations. The goal of this study is to evaluate three pollen source maps using an atmospheric transport model and study the effect on the model results by combining these source maps with pollen data. Here we evaluate three maps for the birch taxon: (1) a map derived by combining a land cover data and forest inventory, (2) a map obtained from land cover data and calibrated using model simulations and pollen observations, and (3) a statistical map resulting from analysis of forest inventory and forest plot data. The maps were introduced to the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model) as input data to simulate birch pollen concentrations over Europe for the birch pollen season 2006. A total of 18 model runs were performed using each of the selected maps in turn with and without calibration with observed pollen data from 2006. The model results were compared with the pollen observation data at 12 measurement sites located in Finland, Denmark, and Russia. We show that calibration of the maps using pollen observations significantly improved the model performance for all three maps. The findings also indicate the large sensitivity of the model results to the source maps and agree well with other studies on birch showing that pollen or hybrid-based source maps provide the best model performance. This study highlights the importance of including pollen data in the production of source maps for pollen dispersion modelling and for exposure studies.

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“…Plant phenology, such as the time of pollen release, is highly dependent on temperature. Indeed, accumulated heat is used in many models that forecast main pollen season characteristics Galán et al 1998;García-Mozo et al 2008;Ritenberga et al 2018). The duration of the main pollen season for important allergenic pollen taxa is negatively correlated with the start date; hence, stations at lower latitudes with earlier start dates also have longer pollen seasons (e.g., see Fig.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pollen calendars and maps of allergenic pollen in North America

Bitz

Battisti

et al. 2019

Aerobiologia

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Pollen is a common allergen that causes significant health and financial impacts on up to a third of the population of the USA. Knowledge of the main pollen season can improve diagnosis and treatment of allergic diseases. Our objective in this study is to provide clear, quantitative visualizations of pollen data and make information accessible to many disciplines, in particular to allergy sufferers and those in the health field. We use data from 31 National Allergy Bureau (NAB) pollen stations in the continental USA and Canada from 2003 to 2017 to produce pollen calendars. We present pollen season metrics relevant to health and describe main pollen season start and end dates, durations, and annual pollen integrals for specific pollen taxa. In most locations, a small number of taxa constitute the bulk of the total pollen concentration. Start dates for tree and grass pollen season depend strongly on latitude, with earlier start dates at lower latitudes. Season duration is correlated with the start dates, such that locations with earlier start dates have a longer season. NAB pollen data have limited spatiotemporal coverage. Increased spatiotemporal monitoring will improve analysis and understanding of factors that govern airborne pollen concentrations.

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A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe

Cited by 34 publications

References 60 publications

Tūrisma galamērķu pārvaldības problēmas Latvijā

Tūrisma galamērķu pārvaldības problēmas Latvijā

Incorporation of pollen data in source maps is vital for pollen dispersion models

Pollen calendars and maps of allergenic pollen in North America

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