A Statistical Model for Predicting the Liquid Steel Temperature in Ladle and Tundish by Bootstrap Filter

Abstract

A statistical model for predicting the liquid steel temperature in the ladle and in the tundish is developed. Given a large data set in a steelmaking process, the proposed model predicts the temperature in a seconds with a good accuracy. The data are divided into four phases at the mediation of five temperature measurements: before tapping from the converter (CV), after throwing ferroalloys into the ladle, before and after the Ruhrstahl-Heraeus (RH) processing, and after casting into the tundish in the continuous casting (CC) machine. Based on the general state space modeling, the bootstrap filter predicts the temperature phase by phase. The particle approximation technique enables to compute general-shaped probability distributions. The proposed model gives a prediction not as a point but as a probability distribution, or a predictive distribution. It evaluates both uncertainty of the prediction and ununiformity of the temperature. It is applicable to sensitivity analysis, process scheduling and temperature control.KEY WORDS: statistical modeling and simulation; liquid steel temperature control; general state space model; bootstrap filter; steelmaking.

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