A stochastic animal life cycle simulation model for a whole dairy farm system model: Assessing the value of combined heifer and lactating dairy cow reproductive management programs

Li, M.; Reed, K.F.; Lauber, M.R.; Fricke, P.M.; Cabrera, Víctor E.

doi:10.3168/jds.2022-22396

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The Animal Life Cycle submodule of the RuFaS simulates the long-term individual animal's daily growth, production, disease incidence, culling and reproduction according to breed, reproduction protocols, production curves and culling risks using Monte Carlo stochastic processes (Hansen et al, 2021;Li et al, 2022). The submodule has a pre-running system to reach equilibrium only after a few years of simulation.…”

Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An economic component calculates all the revenue streams (e.g., milk or calves sold) and all the costs (e.g., feed or semen purchases) to calculate the net return according to a management scenario. Further detailed description of the Animal Life Cycle submodule is available in Li et al (2022); all of the default simulation distributions and parameters are available in Li (2021).…”

Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Springer value was set at $1,310/heifer and salvage value of culled animals was set at $1.39/kg liveweight. All other costs and prices were the same as the ones used in Li (2021). All economic outcomes were averaged from 100 iterations of the last 365 d of the 7-yr simulation.…”

Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we analyze the economic outcome of alternative breeding strategies that combine sexed, beef and conventional semen. First, we revisit a short-term analysis that reports the income from calves minus the semen cost encapsulated in the Premium Beef on Dairy Program online decision support tool (Cabrera, 2022), and then we present a long-term, more integrated and comprehensive analysis applying the Animal Life Cycle submodule of the Ruminant Farm Simulation Model (Ru-FaS) (Kebreab et al, 2019;Hansen et al, 2021;Li et al, 2022). Although the analysis did not include genetic progress per se, animal's productivity relative to the herd mates was used to select animals for breedings and to adjust lactation curves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decision making for sexed semen and beef semen in dairy production

Cabrera

2023

AABP Proceedings

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Breeding strategies using sexed semen on younger and superior animals and beef semen on older and inferior animals are becoming widely used in the dairy industry because it balances the number of replacements produced and required while bringing extra income of selling crossbreed beef calves that are more valuable than dairy calves. The value proposition also implies genetic improvement because of greater breeding selection and shorter intergenerational interval, which can be captured in improved milk productivity. The best semen-type breeding strategy is farm specific and dependent on herd reproductive performance and ever-changing market conditions. Hence, the need to use models and projections to assert the optimal semen-type breeding strategy that optimizes the net return of each farm under specific market conditions. We analyzed the economic value of using alternative breeding strategies using sexed, beef and conventional semen using 2 approaches. A short-term approach contained in a user-friendly decision support tool, the Premium Beef on Dairy Program, assessed the income from calves over semen costs over a breeding cycle whereas a long-term approach, using the Animal Life Cycle submodule of the Ruminant Farm Simulation Model, included additionally breeding, rearing and feed costs, and slaughter, heifer and milk sales revenues. Important in the long-term evaluation was the milk value change as a proxy for genetic improvement. Both approaches consistently pointed out that the advantage of the sexed/beef semen is positively related to herd reproductive performance. The greater the reproductive performance the more the economic opportunity. With medium to high reproductive performance (above ~20% 21-d pregnancy rate), the Premium Beef on Dairy Program found the maximum income from calves over semen cost occurred when sexed semen was used in the first 2 heifer breedings and first and second lactation superior cows, while the rest of the heifer breedings were made with conventional semen and the rest of the cow breedings were made with beef semen. These results were consistent in the long-term analysis, which indicated that even a slightly more aggressive breeding approach using sexed semen in all heifer breedings resulted in the best net return in the long-term when the extra value of increased milk productivity became the most important economic factor. Although the short-term analysis did not include the herd dynamics and milk changes, it still produced the right trend and directionality for decision making. The recommendation is to use the Premium Beef on Dairy user-friendly tool according to a herd’s reproductive performance and market conditions, and repeat the analysis constantly as the management and market circumstances change. When a deep and long-term analysis is necessary, the use of the Life Cycle Assessment submodule from the RuFaS is critical. Thus, both approaches are useful and complementary.

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Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Long-term Comprehensive Analysis With the Animal Life Cycle ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decision making for sexed semen and beef semen in dairy production

Cabrera

2023

AABP Proceedings

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Machine learning to identify endometrial biomarkers predictive of pregnancy success following artificial insemination in dairy cows

Hoorn,

Rabaglino,

Amaral

et al. 2024

Biology of Reproduction

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The objective was to identify a set of genes whose transcript abundance is predictive of a cow’s ability to become pregnant following artificial insemination (AI). Endometrial epithelial cells from the uterine body were collected for RNA sequencing using the cytobrush method from 193 first-service Holstein cows at estrus prior to AI (day 0). A group of 253 first-service cows not used for cytobrush collection were controls. There was no effect of cytobrush collection on pregnancy outcomes at day 30 or 70 or on pregnancy loss between day 30 and 70. There were 2 upregulated and 214 downregulated genes (FDR < 0.05, absolute fold change >2-fold) for cows pregnant at day 30 versus those that were not pregnant. Functional terms overrepresented in the downregulated genes included those related to immune and inflammatory responses. Machine learning for fertility biomarkers with the R package BORUTA resulted in identification of 57 biomarkers that predicted pregnancy outcome at day 30 with an average accuracy of 77%. Thus, machine learning can identify predictive biomarkers of pregnancy in endometrium with high accuracy. Moreover, sampling of endometrial epithelium using the cytobrush can help understand functional characteristics of the endometrium at AI without compromising cow fertility. Functional characteristics of the genes comprising the set of biomarkers is indicative that a major determinant of cow fertility, at least for first insemination after calving, is immune status of the uterus, which, in turn, is likely to reflect the previous history of uterine disease.

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A time series analysis of milk productivity in US dairy states

Reed

Cabrera

2023

Journal of Dairy Science

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A stochastic animal life cycle simulation model for a whole dairy farm system model: Assessing the value of combined heifer and lactating dairy cow reproductive management programs

Cited by 6 publications

References 59 publications

Decision making for sexed semen and beef semen in dairy production

Decision making for sexed semen and beef semen in dairy production

Machine learning to identify endometrial biomarkers predictive of pregnancy success following artificial insemination in dairy cows

A time series analysis of milk productivity in US dairy states

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