A Stochastic Model with Jumps for Smoking

COULIBALY, Mohamed; N'zi, Modeste

doi:10.9734/jamcs/2019/v34i3-430207

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Lyapunov analysis [7,8,16], permits us to prove that the solution of model (1.2) is positive and global.…”

Section: The Stochastic Model With Jumpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in [7,10] using MatLab R2019b software, we add white noise and Poisson jumps to the first example seen in the deterministic case which reflects the reality in the big Abidjan. To be close to the difficulties of lowering the transmission rate in greater Abidjan, we lowered this rate by 10 percent in the first two figures and by 25 percent in the last two.…”

Section: Numerical Simulation Of the Stocastic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in [7][8][9] and from the model (1.1) we develop a model with jumps perturbation that disrupt the disease transmission rate. We get the system.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Stochastic Model with Jumps for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Greater Abidjan Region during Public Health Measures

Mohamed¹,

Modeste²

2021

J Infect Dis Epidemiol

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Our goal in this paper is to adapt to the context of the Greater Abidjan Region (Côte d'Ivoire) an existing model reflecting the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China). This model is a deterministic compartmental model which is translated by a system of ordinary differential equations. We are reinvesting this model to obtain the parameters of the epidemic in the great Abidjan. We study some mathematical aspects of this deterministic model.Using data from the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Abidjan, we obtain constants corresponding to the Greater Abidjan Region epidemic. We are performing numerical simulations using these constants to predict the behavior of the epidemic in the Greater Abidjan Region.The initial model does not take into account certain disturbances and sudden shocks which could disturb its behavior. In the Greater Abidjan Region, some continuous or sudden events disrupt the behavior of the epidemic. To stick to the realities of the Greater Abidjan Region, we introduce a white noise and jumps that correspond to the different disturbances that can occur. We obtain a stochastic model of COIVD-19 with jumps. We prove that our new model with jumps has a positive global solution. In certain conditions, this solution oscillates in the set of the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic model. We perform numerical simulations which corroborate our theoretical results.

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“…Lyapunov analysis [7,8,16], permits us to prove that the solution of model (1.2) is positive and global.…”

Section: The Stochastic Model With Jumpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Numerical Simulation Of the Stocastic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Stochastic Model with Jumps for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Greater Abidjan Region during Public Health Measures

Mohamed¹,

Modeste²

2021

J Infect Dis Epidemiol

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“…Both stochastic and mathematical models are included in these models. To assess the impact of public health initiatives on the dynamics of disease transmission while taking into account under-reporting in the Ivory Coast, Coulibaly and N'zi [4] created a stochastic model with jump hinged on the deterministic SIRU where U stands for unreported. The use of face masks in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical methods is beneficial in reducing disease burden and preventing community transmission, according to Eikenberry et al's assessment of the impact of mask use by the asymptomatic population in China in 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

Oyamakin S. O.,

Popoola J. I.

2023

AJPAS

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In reaction to the severe socio-economic effects and upheavals that the Covid-19 sickness had on the world within the first few weeks of its introduction, everyone involved had to act quickly to look for possible solutions for preventing the ensuing epidemics. A prompt response is more critical given Nigeria's subpar social, economic, and healthcare infrastructure. Investigated was the efficacy of various pharmacological, non-pharmaceutical, or a combination of both therapies in flattening the Covid-19 incidence curve. In order to investigate the impact of these interventions, a deterministic SVEIHR model was created and applied. The Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) portal's Covid-19 data were used to parametrize the model. For simulations using a system dynamic simulation, estimated parameters were employed. The fundamental reproduction number, R0, was used to evaluate the success of our suggested intervention in effectively managing COVID-19 transmission. The simulation results demonstrated that the use of only non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the use of face masks, a light lockdown, and hand washing at baseline or high levels, is insufficient, with the R0 varying from vaccination at the vaccination rate of 0.5% with non-pharmaceutical interventions at any level of compliance, and a combination of vaccination at 0.05% and high hygiene level were effective in flattening the Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, returning a R0 less than 1. Furthermore, maintaining a high level of cleanliness, which includes hand washing and the use of a face mask, would be sufficient to stop the spread of Covid-19 disease and eventually flatten Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, given a low turnout of 0.05% for vaccination and the easing of lockdown.

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A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

Oyamakin

Popoola

2023

Preprint

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In reaction to the severe socio-economic effects and upheavals that the Covid-19 sickness had on the world within the first few weeks of its introduction, everyone involved had to act quickly to look for possible solutions for preventing the ensuing epidemics. A prompt response is more critical given Nigeria's subpar social, economic, and healthcare infrastructure. Investigated was the efficacy of various pharmacological, non-pharmaceutical, or a combination of both therapies in flattening the Covid-19 incidence curve. In order to investigate the impact of these interventions, a deterministic SVEIHR model was created and applied. The Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) portal's Covid-19 data were used to parametrize the model. For simulations using a system dynamic simulation, estimated parameters were employed. The fundamental reproduction number, R0, was used to evaluate the success of our suggested intervention in effectively managing COVID-19 transmission. The simulation results demonstrated that the use of only non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the use of face masks, a light lockdown, and hand washing at baseline or high levels, is insufficient, with the R0 varying from vaccination at the vaccination rate of 0.5% with non-pharmaceutical interventions at any level of compliance, and a combination of vaccination at 0.05% and high hygiene level were effective in flattening the Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, returning a R0 less than 0. Furthermore, maintaining a high level of cleanliness, which includes hand washing and the use of a face mask, would be sufficient to stop the spread of Covid-19 disease and eventually flatten Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, given a low turnout of 0.05% for vaccination and the easing of lockdown.

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A Stochastic Model with Jumps for Smoking

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

A Stochastic Model with Jumps for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Greater Abidjan Region during Public Health Measures

A Stochastic Model with Jumps for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Greater Abidjan Region during Public Health Measures

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

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