2018
DOI: 10.1002/eej.23150
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A stochastic scheduled operation of wind farm based on scenarios of the generated power with copula

Abstract: Recently, the penetration of wind farm (WF) has been increasing because of the global warming and the lack of the fossil energy resource. However, WF output fluctuate due to the weather and the seasonality. Specially, the long‐term fluctuation is called “Ramp event.” It's difficult for WF output to dispatch to the power grid without controlling the ramp events. This article proposes the method of scheduled operation to mitigate the ramp events and reduce the imbalance energy with the stochastic programming. In… Show more

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Cited by 5 publications
(1 citation statement)
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“…We create a new database that includes the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval predicted in the previous day and which range the measured value of solar radiation amount passes through on the morning of the target day, and we repredict the range through which the solar radiation amount will pass in the afternoon. There have been numerous examples of previous research that use time correlations for probabilistic prediction , but a unique element in the proposed technique of the current manuscript is its additional incorporation of correlations with PV output time series data as well as just‐in‐time (JIT) modeling, which is a type of black box modeling, making it a simple method that does not require formulations of physical models of sunlight. The ultimate objective of this research is to effectively reduce confidence interval width while maintaining the accuracy of the confidence interval estimation determined on the day prior to the targeted day.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We create a new database that includes the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval predicted in the previous day and which range the measured value of solar radiation amount passes through on the morning of the target day, and we repredict the range through which the solar radiation amount will pass in the afternoon. There have been numerous examples of previous research that use time correlations for probabilistic prediction , but a unique element in the proposed technique of the current manuscript is its additional incorporation of correlations with PV output time series data as well as just‐in‐time (JIT) modeling, which is a type of black box modeling, making it a simple method that does not require formulations of physical models of sunlight. The ultimate objective of this research is to effectively reduce confidence interval width while maintaining the accuracy of the confidence interval estimation determined on the day prior to the targeted day.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%