A Stochastic Scheduled Operation of Wind Farm Based on Scenarios of the Generated Power with Copula

Abstract

Recently, the penetration of wind farm (WF) has been increasing because of the global warming and the lack of the fossil energy resource. However, WF output fluctuate due to the weather and the seasonality. Specially, the long-term fluctuation is called "Ramp event." It's difficult for WF output to dispatch to the power grid without controlling the ramp events. This article proposes the method of scheduled operation to mitigate the ramp events and reduce the imbalance energy with the stochastic programming. In this method, it's necessary to use the WF output scenarios. However, there has never been studied the method of generating scenarios with the temporal correlation so far. Therefore, we propose the production method of generating scenarios considering the temporal correlation with copula. Finally, this article shows the validity and the effectiveness of these methods through computational simulations using the integrated WF data of Tohoku area. K E Y W O R D Sbattery, copula, ramp event, scheduled operation, stochastic programming, wind power generation Electr Eng Jpn. 2018;205:41-54.

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