A Stochastic Spatial Dynamical Model for Aedes Aegypti

Abstract

We develop a stochastic spatial model for Aedes aegypti populations based on the life cycle of the mosquito and its dispersal. Our validation corresponds to a monitoring study performed in Buenos Aires. Lacking information with regard to the number of breeding sites per block, the corresponding parameter (BS) was adjusted to the data. The model is able to produce numerical data in very good agreement with field results during most of the year, the exception being the fall season. Possible causes of the disagreement are discussed. We analyzed the mosquito dispersal as an advantageous strategy of persistence in the city and simulated the dispersal of females from a source to the surroundings along a 3-year period observing that several processes occur simultaneously: local extinctions, recolonization processes (resulting from flight and the oviposition performed by flyers), and colonization processes resulting from the persistence of eggs during the winter season. In view of this process, we suggest that eradication campaigns in temperate climates should be performed during the winter time for higher efficiency.

Safety Assessment of Transgenic Organisms in the Environment, Volume 8

“…aegypti is the lack of adequate data for validation. Most models seek to represent the temporal dynamic response to climate and endogenous forces (Focks et al, 1993;Ferreira and Yang, 2003;Williams et al, 2013), while others consider the spatial-temporal dynamic by introducing dispersal mechanisms (Otero, Schweigmann and Solari, 2008;Magori et al, 2009;Almeida et al, 2010).…”

“…aegypti spatial-temporal dynamics. Otero, Schweigmann and Solari (2008) proposed a stochastic spatially-explicit model, based on their previous temporal model , in which space is modelled as cells which are occupied by autonomous mosquito populations interconnected by flying individuals. Dispersal between cells is modulated by the availability of breeding sites.…”

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

“…Mathematical models of pathogen population dynamics, by virtue of their ability to provide a quantitative means for integrating and simulating the impacts of multi-factorial and multi-scale disease transmission processes, may offer us a particularly pertinent methodological tool for developing such holistic predictive and investigative frameworks [7][8][9][10][11][12][13]19,25,27,[42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Recent advances in incorporating the effects of climate, as well as anthropogenic alterations of ecosystems (e.g.…”

Modelling Large Scale Invasion of <i>Aedes aegypti </i>and <i>Aedes albopictus</i> Mosquitoes

“…Richter et al [13] have modified the model of Takahashi et al [11] by adding a predation term and introducing temperature dependent reproduction rate. Moreover, by importing Geo-referenced model parameters into a finite element tool, invasion of Aedes albopictus was simulated at a [14] have adopted a stochastic spatial model to describe the spatial-temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Buenos Aires. The mean daily temperature variation was described by a simple cosinus function.…”