A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks

Liu, Shuang; Aurambout, Jean‐Philippe; Villalta, Oscar; Edwards, Jacqueline; Barro, Paul De; Kriticos, Darren J.; Cook, David

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.05.004

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Appropriate decision aid tools such as multi‐criteria decision analysis (Liu et al . ) and new research on the role of marine species translocations under climate change will be required to adequately assess risk and derive appropriate regional policies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whether this is an appropriate policy shift for all Arctic shipping routes requires careful consideration of risk-return trade-offs. Appropriate decision aid tools such as multi-criteria decision analysis (Liu et al 2015) and new research on the role of marine species translocations under climate change will be required to adequately assess risk and derive appropriate regional policies.…”

Section: M P L I C a T I O N S F O R R E S E A R C H A N D P O L I C Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biological introduction risks from shipping in a warming Arctic

Ware

Berge

Jelmert

et al. 2015

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary1. Several decades of research on invasive marine species have yielded a broad understanding of the nature of species invasion mechanisms and associated threats globally. However, this is not true of the Arctic, a region where ongoing climatic changes may promote species invasion. Here, we evaluated risks associated with non-indigenous propagule loads discharged with ships' ballast water to the high-Arctic archipelago, Svalbard, as a case study for the wider Arctic. 2. We sampled and identified transferred propagules using traditional and DNA barcoding techniques. We then assessed the suitability of the Svalbard coast for non-indigenous species under contemporary and future climate scenarios using ecophysiological models based on critical temperature and salinity reproductive thresholds. 3. Ships discharging ballast water in Svalbard carried high densities of zooplankton (mean 1522 AE 335 SE individuals m À3 ), predominately comprised of indigenous species. Ballast water exchange did not prevent non-indigenous species introduction. Non-indigenous coastal species were present in all except one of 16 ballast water samples (mean 144 AE 67 SE individuals m À3 ), despite five of the eight ships exchanging ballast water en route.4. Of a total of 73 taxa, 36 species including 23 non-indigenous species were identified. Of those 23, sufficient data permitted evaluation of the current and future colonization potential for eight widely known invaders. With the exception of one of these species, modelled suitability indicated that the coast of Svalbard is unsuitable presently; under the 2100 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8Á5 climate scenario, however, modelled suitability will favour colonization for six species. 5. Synthesis and applications. We show that current ballast water management practices do not prevent non-indigenous species from being transferred to the Arctic. Consequences of these shortcomings will be shipping-route dependent, but will likely magnify over time: our models indicate future conditions will favour the colonization of non-indigenous species Arctic-wide. Invasion threats will be greatest where shipping transfers organisms across biogeo- 2016, 53, 340-349 doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12566 graphic realms, and for these shipping routes ballast water treatment technologies may be required to prevent impacts. Our results also highlight critical gaps in our understanding of ballast water management efficacy and prioritization. Thereby, our study provides an agenda for research and policy development. Journal of Applied Ecology

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: M P L I C a T I O N S F O R R E S E A R C H A N D P O L I C Ymentioning

confidence: 99%