A study of ensemble-sensitivity-based initial condition perturbation methods for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts

Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

“…The advanced research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.0 (Skamarock et al [56] ) was used, and two one-way nested domains were employed in this study. Based on the nested settings adopted in previous literature (Zhang et al [57] ; Wang et al [58] ), the convection-allowing domain (d02) was composed of 440 × 440 horizontal grid points at 3 km grid spacing covering the YHRB, nested within an outer parameterizing domain (d01) of 480 × 360 grid points at 15 km grid spacing (Fig. 3).…”

Ensemble Forecasting Experiments Using the Breeding of Growing Modes with Perturbed Land Variables

“…Such experiments with perturbed initial conditions for numerical models have led to follow-up ensemble forecasting with various numerical models [4]. While Monte Carlo methods for generating initial conditions had been commonly used in the early stages of ensemble forecasting [5,6], substantial attention was later paid to methods for generating perturbations with dynamical features of the variable fields in the world-leading centres.…”

“…With the BGM method being widely used in various global and regional numerical models [4,17], the perturbed variables (e.g., wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity) have largely been focused on in combination with analysis of the saturation status of breeding cycles in the atmospheric context [17]; however, there has been an insufficient investigation on land surface variables (land surface temperatures and soil moistures).…”