A study of financial cycles and the macroeconomy in Taiwan

Cheng, Han-Liang; Chen, Nan‐Kuang

doi:10.1007/s00181-020-01926-z

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The results are similar. See Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003), Hodrick and Prescott (1997) for more details. 24 Our sampling period is a bit short for uncovering the cointegrating relationship.…”

Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence

Leung

Tang

2021

Contemporary Economic Policy

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The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest.

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Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence

Leung

Tang

2021

Contemporary Economic Policy

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“…The plausibility of the existence of recurring phases of growth and decline of the economy seems to be suggested by the oscillations experienced over time. Taking the 2007Taking the -2008 global financial crisis as an example, boom-bust changes in financial variables were key determinants in understanding fluctuations in economic activity (Cheng and Chen 2021;Petrakos et al 2023). The COVID pandemic (Svabova et al 2022) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are other recent examples of tensions giving rise to serious concerns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita

Focacci

2023

Economies

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The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about economic cycles. This paper analyses both the original Kondratieff data (from which the hypothesis started) and a dataset that includes GDP per capita for several significant countries. By applying the wavelet analysis (WA), the main objective of the paper is to understand whether it is plausible to support the existence of periodic fluctuations consistent with long cycles theory. The outcomes for Kondratieff’s original dataset do not show the presence of a coherent periodicity for most cases. The same conclusion can be drawn for all the GDP per capita series.

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Machine‐Learning and Deep‐Learning Techniques in Social Sciences

Bhagat

Singh

2022

Machine Learning Algorithms for Signal and Image Processing

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A study of financial cycles and the macroeconomy in Taiwan

Cited by 4 publications

References 40 publications

The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence

The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence

A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita

Machine‐Learning and Deep‐Learning Techniques in Social Sciences

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