A Study of Long-Term Sunspots and K-Index Geometric Cycles Using Probabilistic Modeling

Abstract

The research work done in this paper comprises the application of different well-known probability distribution models. This includes the understanding of the behavior and dynamics of 24 sunspot cycles with total data. The time-series data sets were selected from 1749 to 2014. To observe the solar activity effects on K-index activity the double cycles from 1932 to 2014 were also incorporated in the study. The comparative study is useful to observe the long-term solar-terrestrial connection. The magnetic field of the sun reverses its polarity after every 11 years of the cycle. So after every 22 years, the north pole becomes again north pole. By using the two well-known tests Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KST) and Anderson-Darling test (ADT) the probability distribution models were obtained for each sunspot cycles and compare. The significant probability models for all the sunspot cycles have been obtained. The fitted probability distribution models on selected data sets may be useful to understand the trend of solar and geomagnetic activity.