Rotational glitches in some rotation-powered pulsars display power-law size and exponential waiting time distributions. These statistics are consistent with a state-dependent Poisson process, where the glitch rate is an increasing function of a global stress variable (e.g. crust-superfluid angular velocity lag), diverges at a threshold stress, increases smoothly while the star spins down, and decreases step-wise at each glitch. A minimal, seven-parameter, maximum likelihood model is calculated for PSR J1740−3015, PSR J0534+2200, and PSR J0631+1036, the three objects with the largest samples whose glitch activity is Poisson-like. The estimated parameters have theoretically reasonable values and contain useful information about the glitch microphysics. It is shown that the maximum likelihood, state-dependent Poisson model is a marginally (23-27 per cent) better post factum "predictor" of historical glitch epochs than a homogeneous Poisson process for PSR J1740−3015 and PSR J0631+1036 and a comparable predictor for PSR J0534+2200. Monte Carlo simulations imply that 50 glitches are needed to test reliably whether one model outperforms the other. It is predicted that the next glitch will occur at Modified Julian Date (MJD) 57784 ± 256.8, 60713 ± 1935, and 57406 ± 1444 for the above three objects respectively. The analysis does not apply to quasiperiodic glitchers like PSR J0537−6910 and PSR J0835−4510, which are not described accurately by the state-dependent Poisson model in its original form.