A study on Bayesian method for reliability evaluation of small sample size aviation support systems

Abstract

In order to realize the reliability evaluation of small sample size aviation support system with known prior information, the Bayes methods of system reliability evaluation are given by using the second-order moment equivalent method, relative least squares method (RLS method), maximum entropy method (ME method) and Chebyshev polynomial method respectively, and the accuracies of the above Bayes synthesis methods are compared and analysed through an example. The results show that the ME method and RLS method have higher evaluation accuracy than the second-order moment equivalent method and Chebyshev expansion method. Finally, ME method and RLS method are applied to the reliability evaluation of aviation support system, and good evaluation results are obtained. At the same time, it provides a valuable reference for the reliability evaluation of complex system with small sample size in engineering practice.