A study on data-driven hybrid heating load prediction methods in low-temperature district heating: An example for nursing homes in Nordic countries

Ding, Yiyu; Timoudas, Thomas Ohlson; Wang, Qian; Chen, Shuqin; Brattebø, Helge; Nord, Nataša

doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2022.116163

Cited by 18 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Another main finding of all these studies is the need of developing accurate models in order to forecast not only the thermal energy demand profiles [13,14] but also the distributed thermal production at the prosumers' sites, preferably including network dynamics and thermal transients [15]. This, coupled with the correct choice of the prosumer substation architecture, represents a key factor for the thermal prosumer diffusion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This, coupled with the correct choice of the prosumer substation architecture, represents a key factor for the thermal prosumer diffusion. Indeed, temperatures play a major role in the overall efficiency of the DH system [14]. In detail, on one hand, traditional DH benefits from high temperature differences between the supply and return pipes (to limit the flowrates and hence the pumping power) and from low temperatures in the return pipe (that are desirable since they increase the centralized heat production efficiency and decrease the network heat losses), but this may clash with the requirements for the bidirectional heat exchange at the thermal prosumers' sites [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling a Prototype of Bidirectional Substation for District Heating with Thermal Prosumers

et al. 2023

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The performance of the innovative configurations of the “efficient” thermal networks is a key topic in scientific research, focusing on distribution temperatures and integration with high-efficiency plants and renewable sources. As it already happens for the electricity prosumers, a thermal prosumer may feed the district heating network through a bidirectional exchange substation with the excess of the locally produced thermal energy (e.g., by means of solar thermal plant) or with the waste heat recovered in the industrial processes. The Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) and the Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna (UNIBO) designed a bidirectional substation prototype, based on a return-to-supply configuration, and tested steady-state and dynamic conditions to evaluate performances and optimization measures. In this paper, the Modelica language and Dymola software were used to run a multi-domain simulation and model-based design of the substation, starting from a new heat exchanger model featuring variable efficiency, based on the thermal resistance scaling method. Control systems and components were customized from models in standard libraries in order to reproduce the substation behavior under defined operating settings, and the model was validated on the abovementioned experimental tests. Numerical results in terms of exchanged powers, temperatures and flow rates were systematically compared to experimental data, demonstrating a sufficient agreement. In particular, the absolute mean deviation—in terms of temperature—between experimental and numerical data assessed over the entire tests remains contained in +/−1 °C. As further step of the analysis, an optimized model could be included as a component in a district heating network for further investigations on the prosumers’ effects on an existing traditional grid (e.g., in case of deep renovation of urban areas connected to district heating and/or creation of micro energy communities).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling a Prototype of Bidirectional Substation for District Heating with Thermal Prosumers

et al. 2023

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“…Several studies have been conducted to improve efficiency and to show the effectiveness of District Heating & Cooling (DHC) systems. For example, the work in [1] predicts the short and long-term heating demand in nursing homes in the Nordic countries through linear regression and artificial neural networks. Based on the findings, the authors propose installing heat pumps in low-temperature District Heating (DH) to meet the load requirements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Market integration analysis of heat recovery under the EMB3Rs platform: An industrial park case in Greece

Faria

Soares

Goumas

et al. 2023

2023 Open Source Modelling and Simulation of Energy Systems (OSMSES)

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District heating is a system for distributing heat from a central source, such as a boiler plant or a combined heat and power plant, to multiple industries, buildings or homes within a defined geographic area. This system can use different energy sources, including fossil fuels, biomass, solar thermal, and geothermal energy, to provide customers with heating, hot water, and other services. In light of these benefits, this work aims to present a thorough study of a Greek industrial park case. The work is supported by the EMB3Rs platform that allows performing a feasibility analysis of the system. In particular, this work explores the market module of this platform to provide a detailed market analysis of energy exchange within the Greek industrial park. The results pinpoint the effectiveness of the platform in simulating different market designs, centralized and decentralized market designs, making it clear the potential benefit the sources in the test case may achieve by engaging in a market environment. Different options for market clearing are considered in the study, for instance, including CO2 signals to reach carbon neutrality or community preferences to increase community autonomy. One can conclude that excess heat from existing sources is enough to cover other industries/facilities' heat demand, leading to environmental benefits as well as a fairer financial profits allocation.

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The potential of decentral heat pumps as flexibility option for decarbonised energy systems

Schöniger,

Mascherbauer,

Resch

et al. 2024

Energy Efficiency

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Decarbonising the energy system requires high shares of variable renewable generation and sector coupling like power to heat. In addition to heat supply, heat pumps can be used in future energy systems to provide flexibility to the electricity system by using the thermal storage potential of the building stock and buffer tanks to shift electricity demand to hours of high renewable electricity production. Bridging the gap between two methodological approaches, we coupled a detailed building technology operation model and the open-source energy system model Balmorel to evaluate the flexibility potential that decentral heat pumps can provide to the electricity system. Austria in the year 2030 serves as an example of a 100% renewable-based electricity system (at an annual national balance). Results show that system benefits from heat pump flexibility are relatively limited in extent and concentrated on short-term flexibility. Flexible heat pumps reduce system cost, CO2 emissions, and photovoltaics and wind curtailment in all scenarios. The amount of electricity shifted in the assessed standard flexibility scenario is 194 GWhel and accounts for about 20% of the available flexible heat pump electricity demand. A comparison of different modelling approaches and a deterministic sensitivity analysis of key input parameters complement the modelling. The most important input parameters impacting heat pump flexibility are the flexible capacity (determined by installed capacity and share of control), shifting time limitations, and cost assumptions for the flexibility provided. Heat pump flexibility contributes more to increasing low residual loads (up to 22% in the assessed scenarios) than decreasing residual load peaks. Wind power integration benefits more from heat pump flexibility than photovoltaics because of the temporal correlation between heat demand and wind generation.

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A study on data-driven hybrid heating load prediction methods in low-temperature district heating: An example for nursing homes in Nordic countries

Cited by 18 publications

References 36 publications

Modelling a Prototype of Bidirectional Substation for District Heating with Thermal Prosumers

Modelling a Prototype of Bidirectional Substation for District Heating with Thermal Prosumers

Market integration analysis of heat recovery under the EMB3Rs platform: An industrial park case in Greece

The potential of decentral heat pumps as flexibility option for decarbonised energy systems

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