A study on passenger flow model and simulation in aspect of COVID-19 spreading on public transport bus stops

Burdzik, Rafał; Chema, Wongelawit; Celiński, Ireneusz

doi:10.1016/j.jpubtr.2023.100063

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

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“…Based on pedestrian simulation, an evaluation grid was constructed to control the intensity of passenger flow [6]. Burdzik et al [7] focused on the passenger flow interactions with a minimum spread risk of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Crowding satisfaction and delays are modeled and estimated by valid simulation.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management Policy in Urban Rail Transit System: Trade-Off between Social Distancing and Service Efficiency Using Simulation in the Post-Epidemic Era

Cao,

Ceder,

Wang

et al. 2024

Systems

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The past COVID-19 pandemic introduced the world to the necessity of dealing with the trade-off between minimizing probability of contagion, and providing people with services they need. This trade-off stipulates that a large person-to-person distance will reduce contagion probability, but will render service inefficient, and vice versa. This work focuses on the urban rail transit (URT) hub, as an example of a busy passenger area, from which we can derive an optimal preparedness policy to use during the pandemic time of any coronaviruses. We use simulation methodology, based on the classical social force model, to represent behaviors and characteristics of pedestrians. Passenger flow movement process is a mechanism we explore to figure out how the epidemic management policy and pedestrian psychological-related behaviors interact with the URT system. The systems’ complexity regarding contagion-prevention distances are tested over a few scenarios: before/after the outbreak, and for different person-to-person distances demonstrating different crowd levels. A case study of Xinjiekou Station, Nanjing URT, China, enables assessment of passenger management policy with person-to-person distances of 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 2.0 m. Multi-scenario performance illustrates the trade-off in dynamic between the efficiency of pedestrians’ walking behaviors and the distancing needs for preventing coronaviruses transmission. The results show that queuing length with social distancing of 1.0 m and 2.0 m is increased by 4.17% and 21.22%. The average delays in boarding are 14.1 s and 22.5 s for 1.0 m and 2.0 m, which leads to 15.29% and 22.39% increases, respectively, in comparison with ordinary social distancing of about 0.5 m.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management Policy in Urban Rail Transit System: Trade-Off between Social Distancing and Service Efficiency Using Simulation in the Post-Epidemic Era

Cao,

Ceder,

Wang

et al. 2024

Systems

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Transport in the tourist services sector in Poland during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic

Sobczuk

2024

WJTE

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Transport plays an essential role in the country's socio-economic development, as it enables efficient functioning of individual sectors of the economy. It is a factor enhancing the development of many areas of life, including tourist travel. A characteristic feature of tourism is the movement of people to places of attractive value. Therefore, transport is necessary for its existence. The tourist industry has been severely affected by the spread of COVID-19. The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has weakened the condition of the tourist services sector and affected transport. The article aims to reveal the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transport sector concerning changes in tourist transport passengers. Data on tourist traffic in Poland was used in this publication. It has been shown that the weakening of tourism significantly translated into changes in the number of passengers traveling. The decrease in the number of people transported mainly affected air and road transport; however, more minor differences were observed in transport based on rail, sea, and inland waterways. The decrease in the number of recorded tourist trips was reflected in the shares of individual transport modes in passenger transport. In response to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, travelers' preferences changed regarding their means of transport. Since mid-2021, tourism has been returning to the path of positive development, noticeable in domestic and foreign travel.

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Probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens in long-distance passenger transport

Burdzik

2023

AoT

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This paper presents a description of the methodology developed for estimation of pathogen transmission in transport and the results of the case study application for long-distance passenger transport. The primary objective is to report the method developed and the application for case studies in various passenger transport services. The most important findings and achievements of the presented study are the original universal methodology to estimate the probability of pathogen transmission with full mathematical disclosure and an open process formula, to make it possible to take other specific mechanisms of virus transmission when providing transport services. The results presented conducted an analysis on the mechanisms of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens during the transport process, to examine the chain of events as a result of which passengers may be infected. The author proposed a new method to estimate the probability of transmission of viral pathogens using the probability theory of the sum of elementary events. This is a new approach in this area, the advantage of which is a fully explicit mathematical formula that allows the method to be applied to various cases. The findings of this study can facilitate the management of epidemic risk in passenger transport operators and government administration. It should be clearly emphasised that the developed method and estimated values are the probabilities of pathogen transmission. Estimating the probability of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogen is not the same as the probability of viral infection, and more so the probability of contracting COVID-19. Viral infection strongly depends on viral mechanisms, exposure doses, and contact frequency. The probability of contracting COVID-19 and its complications depends on the individual characteristics of the immune system, even with confirmed viral infection. However, it is undoubtedly that the probability of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogen is the most reliable measure of infection risk, which can be estimated according to the objective determinants of pathogen transmission.

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A study on passenger flow model and simulation in aspect of COVID-19 spreading on public transport bus stops

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

Management Policy in Urban Rail Transit System: Trade-Off between Social Distancing and Service Efficiency Using Simulation in the Post-Epidemic Era

Management Policy in Urban Rail Transit System: Trade-Off between Social Distancing and Service Efficiency Using Simulation in the Post-Epidemic Era

Transport in the tourist services sector in Poland during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic

Probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus pathogens in long-distance passenger transport

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