A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, G Hamed

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.12.027

Cited by 49 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The System dynamics(SD) model was first proposed by the American scholar Forrester in the early 1950s [21], and it can solve problems of a complex system with high order and nonlinear multiple feedback, so it has been widely used in the energy research field [22]. Hosseini et al [23] analyzed the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates using a system dynamics approach. Alexander et al [24] evaluated Mekong Delta adaptation strategies with system dynamics modeling.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Development Forecasting of China’s Power Supply Structure Clean Development

Zhang

Yun

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:The clean development of China's power supply structure has become a crucial strategic problem for the low-carbon, green development of Chinese society. Considering the subsistent developments of optimized allocation of energy resources and efficient utilization, the urgent need to solve environmental pollution, and the continuously promoted power market-oriented reform, further study of China's power structure clean development has certain theoretical value. Based on the data analysis, this paper analyzes the key factors that influence the evolution process of the structure with the help of system dynamics theory and carries out comprehensive assessments after the construction of the structure evaluation system. Additionally, a forecasting model of the power supply structure development based on the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) has been put forward to forecast the future structure. Through the research of policy review and scenario analysis, the paths and directions of structure optimization are proposed. In this paper, the system dynamics, vector autoregressive model (VAR), policy mining, and scenario analysis methods are combined to systematically demonstrate the evolution of China's power structure, and predict the future direction of development. This research may provide a methodological and practical reference for the analysis of China's power supply structure optimization development and for theoretical studies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Development Forecasting of China’s Power Supply Structure Clean Development

Zhang

Yun

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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“…These include the Hubbert, Gaussian and Logistic models (Reynolds 2014;Saraiva et al 2014;Brandt 2007); system simulation methods, which are based on causal relationship of factors, such as the system dynamics method (Tao and Li 2007;Tang et al 2010;Hosseini and Shakouri 2016); and econometric models based on economic theory (Kaufmann 1991;Pindyk and Rubinfeld 1998). The most widely used method is the curve-fitting model (Gallagher 2011;Sorrell and Speirs 2010;Nashawi et al 2010;Ebrahimi and Ghasabani 2015).…”

Section: Existing Oil Production Forecast Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

et al. 2017

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“…2 Even with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, unconventional oil probably will gain a considerable market share in the short term, although conventional oil remains as a major source of global oil market in the long term. 3 Therefore, these unconventional oils are potential resources that could be used to fulfill current and future energy requirements. Among these unconventional oils, bitumens from tar sand reservoirs have great potential to assist in meeting the world's rising energy demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of Acidic Compounds in Brazilian Tar Sand Bitumens by LTQ Orbitrap XL: Assessing Biodegradation Using Petroleomics

Martins¹,

Angolini²,

Cruz³

et al. 2016

J. Braz. Chem. Soc.

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A set of eight tar sand samples with identical source, from sedimentary facies of the Pirambóia Formation, Paraná Basin, provides an interesting opportunity to assess the biodegradation extent of bitumens using high-resolution mass spectrometry with Orbitrap mass analyzer. The results suggest that acidic compounds have been degraded by microorganisms, since the O 2 and O 3 classes were lower to bitumens from dry interdune facies, the most biodegraded. It was also proposed a new parameter to evaluate biodegradation, DBE ratio (ratio between acidic species with the same number of double bond equivalent), that was used together with the already proposed A/C ratio (acyclic to cyclic naphthenic acids), both obtained from O 2 class distribution. The bitumens from dry interdune facies presented the highest DBE ratios and lowest A/C ratios, which suggested that these parameters can be used to assess the extent of bitumen biodegradation in which the DBE ratios increase and the A/C ratios decrease with increasing biodegradation. Keywords: heavy oil, biodegradation, heteroatom class, sedimentary facies, Paraná Basin IntroductionIt is expected that the production of heavy, biodegraded oil will increase worldwide as lighter conventional oil reserves are depleted.1 This shortage of light oil makes these less attended energy resources more attractive, especially considering that heavy oils are currently 10 times more abundant than conventional oils.2 Even with the fluctuation of crude oil prices, unconventional oil probably will gain a considerable market share in the short term, although conventional oil remains as a major source of global oil market in the long term.3 Therefore, these unconventional oils are potential resources that could be used to fulfill current and future energy requirements. Among these unconventional oils, bitumens from tar sand reservoirs have great potential to assist in meeting the world's rising energy demand. 4,5 The occurrence of tar sand bitumens is common in many basins worldwide, but they are mainly found in shallow reservoirs on the flanks of foreland basins in North and South America. The largest accumulations are the supergiant deposits of tar sands in the Alberta (Canada) and Eastern Venezuelan (Venezuela) basins. 6,7 In Brazil, there are tar sand bitumen accumulations in the Paraná Basin, mostly occurring in sandstones of the Triassic Pirambóia Formation. These tar sands are restricted to the eastern margin, with approximately 25 known localities spread over two areas in the state of São Paulo. The Anhembi Exudation area is one of the major heavy oil exudations in this area. The oil reservoir was estimated at 5,712,000 barrels based on a mean content of 5.5% weight oil. These bitumen deposits have a high viscosity and medium-to-high sulfur content (2-3% by weight). 8The Paraná Basin is a very large intracratonic basin in which the tar sand accumulations are attributed to the Irati-Pirambóia petroleum system. 8,9 In the Pirambóia Formation, there are four different sedimentary eolic facies...

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A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Cited by 49 publications

References 36 publications

Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Development Forecasting of China’s Power Supply Structure Clean Development

Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Development Forecasting of China’s Power Supply Structure Clean Development

Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

Characterization of Acidic Compounds in Brazilian Tar Sand Bitumens by LTQ Orbitrap XL: Assessing Biodegradation Using Petroleomics

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