A study on the spatial and temporal evolution of urban shrinkage and its influencing factors from a multidimensional perspective: A case study of resource-based cities in China

Abstract

With social and economic environment changes occurring in the world and deepening of the urbanization process, China’s urban development exhibits a new phenomenon of growth and shrinkage fluctuations. The resource-based city shrinkage phenomenon is particularly prominent. Research on the commonalities and patterns of similar groups should be enhanced. We constructed an urban shrinkage evaluation index system from the three dimensions of population, economy and space. Accordingly, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of 175 resource-based cities in China from a multidimensional perspective with the entropy method, shrinkage model and transfer matrix method. The results indicated that most resource-based cities in China occurred in the non-shrinking state, but their development speed gradually decreased or even presented stagflation. The shrinkage measure-related results in the different dimensions revealed that the number of shrinking cities is increasing. The population, economic and comprehensive shrinkage levels were mainly slight and remained stable. The number of cities experiencing moderate and severe shrinkage was relatively small and mostly encompassed short-term shrinkage. Spatial shrinkage demonstrated a clear administrative hierarchy difference. Moreover, the spatial distribution range of shrinking cities in each dimension expanded and exhibited obviously similar characteristics, i.e., shrinking cities were relatively concentrated in Northeast China, while they were more scattered in other regions. Furthermore, the geodetector technique was applied to reveal the influencing factors of resource-based city growth and shrinkage. Based on the results, the change in the secondary industry output value share at the start of the study was the primary factor. The impact of each employment structure indicator from 2014 to 2018 was particularly significant. Comprehensive exploration of the shrinkage characteristics of this particular group of cities and their development behavior from a multidimensional perspective can provide an important reference for the transformation and high-quality development of resource-based cities.

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin, China

“…Many resource-based cities with a relatively simple industrial structure are located here, such as Baiyin, Shizuishan, Wuhai, Baotou, Ordos, etc. The job opportunities provided by resource-intensive industries are limited and single, and with the over-exploitation of resources, many resources are on the verge of exhaustion, resulting in economic decline and population loss [ 39 , 54 ]. Moreover, the Yellow River Basin lacks central cities with strong radiant driving forces.…”

“…In addition, the differences in natural background conditions, the depletion of urban resources, and the siphonic effect between cities also serve as important reasons for the shrinkage of some cities [ 27 , 39 , 55 ]. The middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, especially the upper reaches, are dominated by a continental climate.…”

“…China’s urban shrinkage is affected by its unique urban administrative hierarchy in addition to other influencing factors such as population aging, resource depletion, natural disasters, etc., while de-industrialization and suburbanization have less impact on Chinese cities [ 31 – 33 ]. In terms of typical areas, the Pearl River Delta have more urban problems due to the higher economic development and faster urbanization in this region; the population outflow is prominent in Northeast China because of its special natural conditions and current economic development; and many scholars have also paid attention to the provinces in central China, the Yangtze River Delta, resource-based cities, and traditional industrial bases [ 34 – 39 ].…”

Urban Shrinkage and Urban Vitality Correlation Research in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China

“…After the judgments, this study needs to determine the weight of the population growth rate ( ) and the secondary score value ( ), and then take the weighted average of the two as the urban shrinkage score ( ). Referring to the methods of many research results and combining with the actual situation of the study areas, this paper posits that the population reduction has a great influence on the subsequent shrinkage process, so the proportion of cities that have passed the second judgment in the number of cities that have passed the first judgment ( ) and the proportion of cities that have failed the second judgment in the number of cities that have passed the first judgment ( ) are used as alternative weights [ 33 , 34 , 35 ]. Because population change is the primary sign of urban shrinkage, this study gives the higher one to [ 33 ].…”

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of regional shrinkage at the county scale: The three provinces in northeastern China

“…The combination of population and economy has also become an important indicator for regional shrinkage [ 24 , 25 ]. In addition, there are multi-dimensional indicators for shrinkage [ 26 ] and the regional development indicator system [ 18 ]. Finally, the source of data becomes more diverse, including not only statistical data from statistical yearbooks and demographic censuses but also remote sensing data [ 27 ].…”