A Study on the Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Production in China’s Major Grain-Producing Provinces

Ran, Duan; Zhang, Zhanlu; Jing, Yuhan

doi:10.3390/ijerph192416630

Cited by 13 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…For example, the gap between grain supply and demand is increasing, and grain shortage has become a common phenomenon in 21 cities in Guangdong Province [ 17 ]. Even in major producing areas, the proportion of non-grain production is shown to have an increasing trend [ 18 ]. These cities with grain insecurity should be identified early on.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Sustainable Food Security through Regional Grain Supply and Demand Analysis in China

Liu

2023

IJERPH

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As a vital part of sustainable development, food security is challenged by prolonged and concurrent pressures. Efforts have long been devoted to balance grain production across China as a whole, and thereby the uncertainties and underlying crisis in the regional grain-producing systems are hidden. In this study, we characterize the dynamic evolution of 357 cities and explore the dominant supply and demand effects to signal early warnings of grain insecurity. Our results show that 220 cities are in unsustainable grain supply–demand conditions in comparison with 10 years ago. Additionally, the south and southwest of China have experienced enlarged disparities and more severe grain insecurity. The dual effects from both increased population and decreased grain output are substantially responsible for the unsustainable grain-producing system on the city scale. Moreover, cities identified as having grain insecurity occupy high-quality cultivated land, including 55.4% of top-grade land, 49.8% of high-grade land, and only 28.9% of low-grade land. We consequently inform the incongruity between grain productivity and regional grain conditions. It is suggested that current intensive management of cultivation and the strategy of differentiated responsibilities in grain production should be based on environmental sustainability and a degree of self-sufficiency across the region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Sustainable Food Security through Regional Grain Supply and Demand Analysis in China

Liu

2023

IJERPH

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“…Some calculate the level of NGP based on statistical data or sectoral surveys, using indicators like the ratio of non-grain crop area to total agricultural crop area [14,15]. Alternatively, remote sensing and GIS technologies have been employed by other researchers to identify NGP phenomena [16][17][18].Studies about the trends in land use change to NGP [19,20] and the drivers [21,22] and driving mechanisms [21,22] of NGP provide valuable insights into understanding its causes and mitigating its effects. These studies found that factors such as natural resources [23,24], socio-economics [21], transportation location [23], and policy considerations [21,25,26] may contribute to NGP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alternatively, remote sensing and GIS technologies have been employed by other researchers to identify NGP phenomena [16][17][18].Studies about the trends in land use change to NGP [19,20] and the drivers [21,22] and driving mechanisms [21,22] of NGP provide valuable insights into understanding its causes and mitigating its effects. These studies found that factors such as natural resources [23,24], socio-economics [21], transportation location [23], and policy considerations [21,25,26] may contribute to NGP. Considering previous research and the current agricultural production landscape in this study area, we defined NGP as the cultivation of crops other than rice, wheat, and maize on cultivated land.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Non-Grain Production on Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province, China

Jiang,

Wang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Land

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Cultivated land plays a crucial role as the basis of grain production, and it is essential to effectively manage the unregulated expansion of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land in order to safeguard food security. The study of NGP has garnered significant attention from scholars, but the prediction of NGP trends is relatively uncommon. Therefore, we focused on Jiangsu Province, a significant grain production region in China, as the study area. We extracted data on cultivated land for non-grain production (NGPCL) in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019, and calculated the ratio of non-grain production (NGPR) for each county unit in the province. On this basis, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and spatial autocorrelation analysis tools were utilized to uncover the spatio-temporal evolution of NGP in Jiangsu Province. Finally, the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was utilized to predict the trend of NGP in Jiangsu Province in 2038 under the three development scenarios of natural development (NDS), cultivated land protection (CPS), and food security (FSS). After analyzing the results, we came to the following conclusions:(1) During the period of 2000–2019, the NGPCL area and NGPR in Jiangsu Province exhibited a general decreasing trend. (2) The level of NGP displayed a spatial distribution pattern of being “higher in the south and central and lower in the north”. (3) The results of multi-scenario simulation show that under the NDS, the area of NGPCL and cultivated land for grain production (GPCL) decreases significantly; under the CPS, the decrease in NGPCL and GPCL is smaller than that of the NDS. Under the FSS, NGPCL decreases, while GPCL increases. These results can provide reference for the implementation of land use planning, the delineation of the cultivated land protection bottom line, and the implementation of thee cultivated land use control system in the study area.

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“…Cultivated land is essential for grain production, serving as a vital strategic resource worldwide and the foundation for human reproduction, survival, and development [1]. It is also critical for ensuring national prosperity, stability, food security, and ecological balance [2,3]. The process of global urbanization and industrialization has led to notable changes in industrial structures, population distributions (both urban and rural), and patterns of cultivated land utilization [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to recent studies, as of 2020, the non-grain planting area in China included 50.719 million hectares, accounting for approximately 30.28% of the country's cultivated land, and this area is continuing to expand [13]. This poses a substantial threat to China's food security and sustainable development [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and Prospects of Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land in China

Su,

Liu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Cultivated land is essential for grain production. As a major agricultural country, China’s non-grain use of cultivated land not only affects national food security and sustainable agricultural development but also impacts the quality of cultivated land and farmers’ livelihoods. This study used bibliometrics to visualize and analyze 413 articles from the China Knowledge Network (CNKI) and Web of Science (WOS) databases concerning non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPCL). The results reveal the following: (1) The number of annual publications in this area has increased from 2009 to 2023 with the focus of NGPCL research shifting from describing the phenomenon to analyzing its driving mechanisms and then to exploring spatial patterns and governance. (2) The spatial distribution of research institutions is marked by the convergence of multiple entities with the central and eastern regions of China being pivotal research areas and transnational collaborative research becoming increasingly visible. (3) High-frequency keywords include NGPCL, food security, and farmland transfer, focusing on the historical context, effects, driving mechanisms and preventative strategies related to NGPCL. There is a notable evolutionary relationship between farmland transfer and NGPCL themes. (4) Future research should broaden the geographical scope and assess NGPCL trends from global, regional, and multiscale perspectives. Efforts should be made to enhance data accuracy and conduct spatial and temporal simulations, trend analyses, and risk assessments. Furthermore, policy design should consider the structure of human–land relationships to support sustainable agricultural development. This study provides an important reference for deepening and broadening the field of NGPCL.

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A Study on the Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Production in China’s Major Grain-Producing Provinces

Cited by 13 publications

References 52 publications

Towards Sustainable Food Security through Regional Grain Supply and Demand Analysis in China

Towards Sustainable Food Security through Regional Grain Supply and Demand Analysis in China

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Non-Grain Production on Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province, China

Progress and Prospects of Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land in China

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