A Summary of United States Research and Monitoring in Support of the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area

Brooks, Cassandra M.; Ainley, David G.

doi:10.3390/d14060447

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Because of the exceptional ecological value of the Ross Sea, in 2016 the international Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) adopted a 35 year (until 2052) marine protected area (MPA) in the Ross Sea (Brooks et al, 2019). The main threats to the biology in the Ross Sea are commercial fishing and climate change, and there is a particular need for studies that integrate ecological processes with physical changes (Brooks and Ainley, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Winter Polynyas and Their Biophysical Impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

DuVivier

Molina

Holland

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by the thicker ice pack, and polynyas are locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later 21st century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. Changes in wintertime polynya frequency over the 21st century may impact local net primary productivity, which has the potential for cascading effects up the food chain. Improving understanding of the biogeophysical relationships will be important for assessing how the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area, may be vulnerable in the future in unexpected ways.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Winter Polynyas and Their Biophysical Impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

DuVivier

Molina

Holland

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…These short annual periods of intense growth, or blooms, are thus an important driver of the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Even though the relationship between NPP and upper trophic level biomass is complex (Friedland et al., 2012; Stock et al., 2017), skillful predictions of monthly NPP on seasonal‐to‐interannual time scales that capture the fluctuations in spring bloom production may help to better constrain predictions of ecological quantities and assist stakeholders in fishery management and marine conservation (Brooks & Ainley, 2022; Deppeler & Davidson, 2017; Moreau et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone

Buchovecky,

MacGilchrist,

Bushuk

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Every austral spring when Antarctic sea ice melts, favorable growing conditions lead to an intense phytoplankton bloom, which supports much of the local marine ecosystem. Recent studies have found that Antarctic sea ice is predictable several years in advance, suggesting that the spring bloom might exhibit similar predictability. Using a suite of perfect model predictability experiments, we find that November net primary production (NPP) is potentially predictable 7 to 10 years in advance in many Southern Ocean regions. Sea ice extent predictability peaks in late winter, followed by absorbed shortwave radiation and NPP with a 2 to 3 months lag. This seasonal progression of predictability supports our hypothesis that sea ice and light limitation control the inherent predictability of the spring bloom. Our results suggest skillful interannual predictions of NPP may be achievable, with implications for managing fisheries and the marine ecosystem, and guiding conservation policy in the Southern Ocean.

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Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

DuVivier,

Molina,

Deppenmeier

et al. 2023

Clim Dyn

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This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

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A Summary of United States Research and Monitoring in Support of the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area

Cited by 7 publications

References 59 publications

Projections of Winter Polynyas and Their Biophysical Impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Projections of Winter Polynyas and Their Biophysical Impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

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