A Sustainable Future Under Energy Intensity Scenarios-Peru's Compliance with COP24 in an Energy Trilemma Environment

Abstract

The most important transition of the energy matrix in Peru was characterized by an economic bonanza between the years 2009 - 2011 and, whose energy intensity (I.E) was reflected by the accelerated growth of the GDP; which, caused an exponential increase in the energy demand of Peru and, whose multiplying effect was produced by the energy exchange of the predominance of Hydroelectric Energy towards the development of Natural Gas with the Camisea Gas Megaproject, however, it was not considered the impact of other factors. In this sense, the present study requires contextualizing the Energy Trilemma: 1) the country's energy security; through an energy efficiency policy in response to meeting demand in line with GDP growth, 2) energy equity, for the access of quality energy and accessible prices to more vulnerable populations with a diversified energy matrix; 3) environmental sustainability, to describe the Environmental Commitments of Peru with the COP24. The methodology is based on a macroeconomic-energetic model, whose architecture begins with historical information between the years 1970-2016 with respect to GDP vs. primary energy consumption; to then calculate the annual energy intensity of Peru and its CO2 emission according to the polluting factor of each primary matter. Followed, using projections of the GDP from 2017 to the year 2035 (3.8% per year - Conservative case with information from the World Bank) and 3 scenarios of decrease in energy intensity of 1%, 1.5% and 2% per year, may increase energy efficiency and reduce the emission of CO2 in the proportion of 10.4%, 15.2% and 19.6% respectively between 2017-2035. As a result, the total energy consumption will be estimated up to the year 2035 in Millions of TOE, according to each scenario of variation in energy intensity (ΔI. E). and with the forecasts in the distribution of the energy matrix of the years 2025 and 2035 through the BAU methodology, its forecasts of each primary material will be known (Natural Gas, Oil, Coal, Hydroelectric, Renewable Energy, others) until the year 2035 This will allow us to know the forecast of CO2 emissions based on each pollution factor of the primary sources and energy intensity levels predicted with respect to the base case (Δ IE = 0). Finally, Peru's commitment to COP24 will be evaluated based on the per capita correlation of the country / world population in the estimation of the cumulative maximum emission limit of 2.13 GtCO2 between 2017-2035 for Peru, if the temperature is not increased more than 2 ° C for the year 2100 and guarantee the demand of Peru under an optimized Energy Trilemma.