A Synoptic Climatological Approach to Assess Climatic Impact on Air Quality in South-central Canada. Part I: Historical Analysis

Cheng, Chuntian; Campbell, Monica; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong; Auld, Heather; Day, Nancy L.; Pengelly, David; Gingrich, Sarah; Yap, D.

doi:10.1007/s11270-006-9327-3

Cited by 53 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This section is comprised of three subsections: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) projection of future weather types, and (3) estimation of future air pollution concentrations. Since these results were published already as part of the project, the relevant methods and results are briefly described here, for detailed information, refer to publications (Cheng et al 2007a(Cheng et al , 2007b(Cheng et al , 2008.…”

Section: Future Synoptic Weather Types and Air Pollution Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Performance of the within-weather-group air pollution simulation models was evaluated by analyzing model R 2 s and validating the models using the independent datasetone third of the total years selected randomly (Cheng et al 2007a). There was a significant correlation between observed daily mean air pollution concentrations and model predictions.…”

Section: Estimation Of Future Air Pollution Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates

Cheng

Campbell

et al. 2008

Air Qual Atmos Health

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This paper forms the second part of an introduction to a synoptic weather typing approach to assess differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality, focusing on future estimates. A statistical downscaling approach was used to downscale daily five general circulation model (GCM) outputs (three Canadian and two US GCMs) and to derive six-hourly future climate information for the selected cities (Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Windsor) in south-central Canada. Discriminant function analysis was then used to project the future weather types, based on historical analysis defined in a companion paper (Part I). Future air pollution concentrations were estimated using the within-weather-type historical simulation models applied to the downscaled future GCM climate data. Two independent approaches, based on (1) comparing future and historical frequencies of the weather groups and (2) applying within-weather-group elevated mortality prediction models, were used to assess climate change impacts on elevated mortality for two time windows (2040-2059 and 2070-2089). Averaging the five GCM scenarios, across the study area, heat-related mortality is projected to be more than double by the 2050s and triple by the 2080s from the current condition. Cold-related mortality could decrease by about 45-60% and 60-70% by the 2050s and the 2080s, respectively. Air pollution-related mortality could increase about 20-30% by the 2050s and 30-45% by the 2080s, due to increased air pollution levels projected with climate change. The increase in air pollution-related mortality would be largely driven by increases in ozone effects. The population acclimatization to increased heat was also assessed in this paper, which could reduce future heat-related mortality by 40%. It is most likely that the estimate of future extreme temperature-and air pollutionrelated mortality from this study could represent a bottomline figure since many of the factors (e.g., population growth, age structure changes, and adaptation measures) were not directly taken into account in the analyses.

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Section: Future Synoptic Weather Types and Air Pollution Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Estimation Of Future Air Pollution Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates

Cheng

Campbell

et al. 2008

Air Qual Atmos Health

Self Cite

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“…Additionally, only six-hourly weather variables observed at 03:00, 09:00, 15:00, and 21:00 local standard time (LST) were used in the study. For air pollution data, several monitoring sites listed in Table 2, based on the length and completeness of the available data records, were chosen to calculate hourly/daily mean concentrations representing average air pollution conditions for each of the selected cities (refer to Cheng et al 2007a for details on air pollution data treatment).…”

Section: Data Sources and Treatmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part I: historical analysis

Cheng¹,

Campbell

Li³

et al. 2008

Air Qual Atmos Health

Self Cite

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This paper forms the first part of an introduction to a synoptic weather typing approach to assess differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south-central Canada, focusing on historical analysis (a companion paper-Part II focusing on future estimates). In this study, an automated synoptic weather typing procedure was used to identify weather types that have a marked association with high air pollution levels and temperature extremes, and facilitates assessments of the differential and combined health impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution. Annual mean elevated mortality (when daily mortality exceeds the baseline) associated with extreme temperatures and acute exposures to air pollution, based on 1954-2000, was 1,082[95% confidence interval (CI) of 1,017-1,147] for Montreal, 1,047 (CI 994-1,100) for Toronto, for Ottawa, and 327 (CI 311-343) for Windsor. Of this annual mean elevated mortality, extreme temperatures are usually associated with roughly 20%, while air pollution is associated with the remaining 80%. Three pollutants (ozone, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide) are associated with approximately 75% of total air pollution-related mortality across the study area. The remaining 25% is almost evenly associated with suspended particles and carbon monoxide, the other two pollutants addressed in this study. Of the five pollutants, ozone is most significantly associated with elevated mortality, making up one-third of the total air pollution-related mortality. PM 2.5 and PM 10 were not used as a measure of particulate in the study due to brief data records. The study results also suggest that, on the basis of daily mortality risks, extreme temperaturerelated weather presents a much greater risk to human health during heat waves and cold spells than air pollution. For example, in Montreal and Toronto, daily mean elevated mortality counts within the hottest weather type were twice as high as those within air pollution-related weather types.

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“…Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts, 1986;Levy et al, 2003;Aldrin and Haff, 2005;Hussein et al, 2006;Cheng et al, 2007;Prtenjak et al, 2009Prtenjak et al, , 2013Klaić et al, 2012Klaić et al, , 2015. Past investigations focusing on the interplay between meteorology and air quality in Croatia can be grouped as follows: 1) Modelling of the long-range transport of airborne pollutants.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a generalized additive model to quantify the influence of local meteorology on air quality in Zagreb

2015

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This paper reports the estimated response of hourly mean concentrations of selected air pollutants, namely carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of up to 10 µm (PM 10 ), to local scale meteorology in Zagreb, Croatia for the period 2006-2012. A new method is applied here for the urban area of Zagreb. In a general model, a logarithm of hourly mean air pollutant concentrations is expressed as the sum of the nonlinear functions of meteorological and several time variables, with the latter included accounting for temporal variation in emissions. The model can be formulated within the framework of generalized additive models (GAMs) and is additive on the logarithmic scale, which results in multiplicative effects on the original scale. Although the model is nonlinear, it is simple and easy to interpret. It quantifies the impact of meteorological conditions and emissions on air pollution. A measure of the relative importance of each predictor, partial effects and statistical evaluation of the model are also presented. Overall, the results show that the most important predictors are those related to emissions. The aggregate impact of meteorological variables in the model explained 45% of variance in CO, 14% in SO 2 , 25% in NO 2 and 24% in PM 10 . This indicates that meteorology, at least on a local scale, is a noticeable driver of air quality in Zagreb. Stable atmospheric conditions in the urban area favour the occurrence of higher concentrations of air pollutants. Convection processes dominate under unstable conditions, resulting in the dilution of pollutant concentrations within the boundary layer.

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A Synoptic Climatological Approach to Assess Climatic Impact on Air Quality in South-central Canada. Part I: Historical Analysis

Cited by 53 publications

References 31 publications

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part I: historical analysis

Using a generalized additive model to quantify the influence of local meteorology on air quality in Zagreb

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