A Synthesized Methodology for Eliciting Expert Judgment for Addressing Uncertainty in Decision Analysis

Monroe, Richard W.

doi:10.25777/cy4v-g241

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…This represents a challenge for the objective, transparent and scientific comparison of the generated aircraft solutions. In such cases, one usually seeks the professional opinion of domain experts [13,14]. Regardless of their expertise level, however, such assessments would always exhibit a certain level of subjectivity and uncertainty simply due to their human nature [15].…”

Section: Structured Expert Judgment Elicitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An extensive research and development of SEJE techniques was conducted at NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) to estimate parameters of weight, sizing and operations support for a launch vehicle [37]. In particular, probabilistic values were elicited by creating appropriate expert calibration [38] and aggregation [39] techniques in combination with a specially designed questionnaire [13].…”

Section: Seje Applications In the Aerospace Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

2023

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Disruptive technologies and novel aircraft generations represent a potential approach to address the ambitious emission reduction goals in aviation. However, the introduction of innovative concepts is a time-consuming process, which might not necessarily yield an optimal design for a given flight mission and within the defined time frame. In order to address the need for a structured and more exhaustive search for novel concept generations, the Advanced Morphological Approach (AMA) and its further enhancement was introduced earlier. It implies the decomposition of design problems into functional attributes and appropriate technological alternatives. Subsequently, these are evaluated and combined into solutions, which are then projected onto a solution space. The current paper focuses on the technology evaluation step by deriving and integrating structured expert judgment elicitation (SEJE) techniques into conceptual aircraft design with the AMA. For this purpose, the first aim of the work is to justify the developed method by giving an overview and discussing the most prominent SEJE methods and their applications in aerospace. Then, the derived SEJE concept is described and applied in the form of an expert workshop on the use case of wing morphing architecture. As a result, a solution space of wing morphing architecture configurations is generated and analyzed. The workshop conduction and the expert feedback serve as valuable findings for both the further AMA enhancement and similar research.

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Section: Structured Expert Judgment Elicitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seje Applications In the Aerospace Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

2023

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“…This type of uncertainty modeling has already been applied in the aerospace domain. The works of Monroe [19] and Unal et al [20] describe an expert judgment elicitation methodology for the conceptual design of innovative launch vehicles. They use qualitative expert input in order to quantify the uncertainties through probability distributions.…”

Section: Uncertainty Modeling Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancement Opportunities for Conceptual Design in Aerospace Based on the Advanced Morphological Approach

2022

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The current challenges facing the aerospace domain require unconventional solutions, which could be sought in new configurations of future aircraft and spacecraft. The choice of optimal concepts requires the consideration of a significant amount of competing engineering solutions and takes place under conditions of uncertainty. Such a problem can be addressed by enhancing existing methods for analysis and synthesis solutions, such as the Advanced Morphological Approach (AMA). It uses morphological analysis to provide a more exhaustive overview of possible problem solutions, relies on expert evaluations of alternative technological options and applies clustering to the solution space. Although an intuitive method for structured concept generation, the AMA exposes the need for more robust problem structuring, improved objectivity of options evaluation and accounting for uncertainties. The current article suggests ways to overcome these challenges and their possible integration in the process. In particular, the integration of fuzzy sets is proposed to model uncertainties during the evaluation of technological options by the experts. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process is adapted for integration into the AMA and for the conceptual design of aerospace vehicles.

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A Synthesized Methodology for Eliciting Expert Judgment for Addressing Uncertainty in Decision Analysis

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation in Conceptual Aircraft Design

Enhancement Opportunities for Conceptual Design in Aerospace Based on the Advanced Morphological Approach

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