A system dynamics analysis of boom and bust in the shrimp aquaculture industry

Abstract

Driven by growing international demand for shrimp and stagnating catches of wild shrimp, the shrimp aquaculture industry has grown remarkably over the past two decades. Initial hopes that farmed shrimp could provide an environmentally benign alternative to over-exploited wild stocks have, however, proven disappointing. Although global growth has been steady, the industry has experienced dramatic production crashes at national and sub-national scales associated with severe environmental damage. From a systems perspective, the industry is prone to exceed and consume its environmental carrying capacity, resulting in boom and bust patterns of development. In this paper we describe a dynamic commodity system model built to examine boom and bust in the shrimp aquaculture industry. Experiments with the model suggest that a policy that taxes the industry and rebates proceeds to licensed producers may help shift the system toward sustainability.

A basis for understanding fishery management dynamics

“…System dynamics modeling can supply the needed framework for doing this. Previous applications of system dynamics modeling to fisheries have examined competition among fishers (Scheffran et al, 2006), shrimp commodity cycles (Arquitt et al, 2005), strategic planning for fisher groups (Otto and Struben, 2004), management of specific fisheries (McGlade, 1989;Wakeland et al, 2003), understanding of resource management concepts (Moxnes, 2000), simple versus complex models (Moxnes, 2005), illustration of the value of system dynamics modeling (Dudley and Soderquist, 1999), and a variety of related issues (Ruth and Lindholm, 2002). …”

Policy analysis for online game addiction problems

“…A 13-year-old Chinese boy jumped out of an apartment and died in December 2005. It is believed that he was mimicking the jump scene from dynamics approach (Arquitt et al, 2005). In the case of cigarette smoking, the government imposes taxes on tobacco not only to reduce the number of smokers but also to raise funds for education and health.…”

Economic transition management in a commodity market: the case of the Iranian cement industry

“…Different models of supply and/or demand in different products and industries, including various commodities (Meadows, 1970;Sterman, 2000;Arquitt et al, 2005), services (Georgantzas, 2003), and high-tech products (Gonçalves et al, 2005;Liehr et al, 2005) are developed to study different behaviors. In one of the classic system dynamics models, Meadows (1970) develops a model of commodity price cycles for livestock.…”

“…There have been various modifi cations and applications of supply and/or demand sector models for experimenting and developing proper business and public policies (e.g., see Jones et al, 2002;Liehr et al, 2005;Arquitt et al, 2005;Gonçalves et al, 2005;Pierson, 2009). The wide range of applicability of system-dynamics-based supply and demand sector models illustrates the importance of careful attention and better understanding of the common roots of the dynamic behaviors in these models.…”

“…While most previous demand and/or supply models have studied business cycles (e.g., Meadows, 1970;Sterman, 2000) or policy making in a market economy (e.g., Arquitt et al, 2005;Georgantzas, 2003;Liehr et al, 2005), this paper looks at a totally different policy, i.e., transition to a market economy, and it expands applications of the method to address transition problems. In addition, the paper contributes to the method by addressing a serious real world challenge.…”