A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model

Sverdrup, Harald; Ólafsdóttir, Anna Hulda; Ragnarsdottir, KV; Koca, Deniz

doi:10.1007/s41247-018-0040-9

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 111 publications

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“…4. Niobium, molybdenum, vanadium and cobalt cannot substitute significantly for nickel in stainless steel in large amounts (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2018;Sverdrup et al 2018a). Nickel has an annual primary production of more than 2.5 million ton per year, whereas niobium, molybdenum, vanadium and cobalt are produced in smaller amounts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Sverdrup

Ólafsdóttir

2019

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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The integrated systems dynamics model WORLD6 was used to assess long-term supply of stainless steel to society with consideration of the available extractable amount of raw materials. This was done handling four metals simultaneously (iron, chromium, manganese, nickel). We assessed amounts of stainless steel that can be produced in response to demand and for how long, considering the supply of the alloying metals manganese, chromium and nickel. The extractable amounts of nickel are modest, and this puts a limit on how much stainless steel of different qualities can be produced. The simulations indicate that nickel is the key element for stainless steel production, and the issue of scarcity or not depends on how well the nickel supply and recycling systems are managed. The study shows that there is a significant risk that the stainless steel production will reach its maximum capacity around 2055 and slowly decline after that. The model indicates that stainless steel of the type containing Mn-Cr-Ni will have a production peak in about 2040, and the production will decline after 2045 because of nickel supply limitations. Production rates of metals like cobalt, molybdenum, tantalum or vanadium are too small to be viable substitutes for the missing nickel. These metals are limiting on their own as important ingredients for super-alloys and specialty steels and other technological applications. With increased stainless steel price because of scarcity, we may expect recycling to go up and soften the decline somewhat. At recycling degrees above 80%, the supply of nickel, chromium and manganese will be sufficient for several centuries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Sverdrup

Ólafsdóttir

2019

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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“…The resource estimates are put into resource evolution plots, where the estimates are plotted versus time. These plots allow the ultimately recoverable resources to be estimated [25,26,29,30,31] Extraction cut-off is dependent on technology and degree of the repetitiveness of the extraction method. It is composed of different elements:…”

Section: Methods For Resource Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…See 1 for an explanation of the terms for the ore grade cut-off and refining yield. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) are estimated [25,26,29,30]:…”

Section: Methods For Resource Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Population size and GDP is generated internally in the WORLD7 model in the population and food sub-module [24]. The population size is used together with GDP for generating demand [25,26]. Note that the term recycling appears on both sides.…”

Section: World7mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…"Mined" is what is taken from the geological reserves, and there is no other net production of new metal into the system. "Secondary production" is metal derived from mining of other metals like copper [29], platinum group m e t a l s [2 6], cobalt [3 0], or mo lybd enu m [32 ]. "Accumulated in the system" is stocks-in-use in society, and "Losses" is what is lost in such a way that it cannot be retrieved again, it leaves the system.…”

Section: World7mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Global Nickel Mining, Supply, Recycling, Stocks-in-Use and Price Under Different Resources and Demand Assumptions for 1850–2200

Ólafsdóttir

Sverdrup

2021

Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration

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The long-term supply of nickel to society was assessed with the WORLD7 model for the global nickel cycle, using new estimates of nickel reserves and resources, indicating that the best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources for nickel is in the range of 650–720 million ton. This is significantly larger than earlier estimates. The extractable amounts were stratified by extraction cost and ore grade in the model, making them extractable only after price increases and cost reductions. The model simulated extraction, supply, ore grades, and market prices. The assessment predicts future scarcity and supply problems after 2100 for nickel. The model reconstructs observed extraction, supply and market prices for the period 1850–2020, and is used to simulate development for the period 2020–2200. The quality of nickel ore has decreased significantly from 1850 to 2020 and will continue to do so in the future according to the simulated predictions from the WORLD7 model. For nickel, extraction rates are suggested to reach their maximum value in 2050, and that most primary nickel resources will have been exhausted by 2130. After 2100, the supply per capita for nickel will decline towards exhaustion if business-as-usual is continuing. This will be manifested as reduced supply and increased prices. The peak year can be delayed by a maximum of 100 years if recycling rates are improved significantly and long before scarcity is visible.

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Development of a Biophysical Economics Module for the Global Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7

2021

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A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model

Cited by 14 publications

References 111 publications

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Modelling Global Nickel Mining, Supply, Recycling, Stocks-in-Use and Price Under Different Resources and Demand Assumptions for 1850–2200

Development of a Biophysical Economics Module for the Global Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7

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