A System Dynamics Model of Urban Railway Demand Prediction for Safety and Security Improvement: Lessons Learned from Indonesian Railway Network

Wijayanto, Yanuar; Fauzi, Akhmad; Rustiadi, Ernan; Syartinilia,

doi:10.18280/ijsse.120202

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…In contrast to Wijayanto et al [30], who did dynamic modeling of prediction models for the number of passengers, the number of trains, income, and the number of subsidies for policymakers to formulate a Jabodetabek KRL management strategy in the future. In this study, dynamic modeling was carried out to determine the impact of the development of the rail network on regional development, especially in suburban areas, to provide valuable insights for policymakers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Modeling Impacts of Inter-Urban Railway Transportation on Regional Development: A Case Study of Sub-Urban Greater Jakarta, Indonesia

Kasikoen,

Mukti,

Fauzi

et al. 2023

IJSDP

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The development of inter-urban railway transportation, especially in Greater Jakarta and its surroundings, has a significant impact on regional development. The government is developing the railway network, allowing for expansion of development in the area around the railway network, leading to urban sprawl and other negative externalities. A comprehensive study is needed to anticipate and provide policy instruments to control the negative impacts of railway expansion. This study aimed to address such an issue by developing a dynamic model of interurban railway transportation and its impact on the development of a region using a system dynamic modeling, by developing land-use sub-model, population sub-model, housing submodel, and economic sub-model. The study was conducted in the Sukaraja District of Bogor Regency, part of the Greater Jakarta railway network transportation development. The study shows that within the next 50 years, the study area will be impacted significantly by the railway networks, leading to declining agricultural land availability, increasing settlement areas, and expansions of economic infrastructures. These will positively and negatively impact the regions and their neighborhood regions, such as Bogor and Jakarta.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Modeling Impacts of Inter-Urban Railway Transportation on Regional Development: A Case Study of Sub-Urban Greater Jakarta, Indonesia

Kasikoen,

Mukti,

Fauzi

et al. 2023

IJSDP

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“…The variables used in this study came from the research of Wijayanto et al [12][13][14], which has been published where these variables can be seen in tables 1, 2, 3, and 4. A survey was also conducted through an online expert survey using Google Forms.…”

Section: Collection Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy development of urban railway services sustainability in Indonesia: A multipol application

Wijayanto¹,

Fauzi

Rustiadi

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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The daily traffic congestion faced by residents who live in the Greater Jakarta area has popularized the Jabodetabek Electric Train (KRL) as a mode of transportation for commuters to work and school. However, satisfactory service has not matched the increasing number of KRL users. Therefore, this study aims to develop a sustainability policy for urban rail services in Indonesia as an alternative strategy to overcome KRL service problems, such as overcapacity and inconvenience. The Multipol method is used to develop KRL service sustainability policies. Multipol is a multi-criteria decision-making method through the opinion of transportation experts. This study found that controlling the spread of COVID in the KRL is one of the priorities that must be implemented to ensure the continuity of the train. Then, the safety and security of the KRL are among the most critical policies determining the sustainability of urban railways in Indonesia. Therefore, safety and security can be improved by developing the competence of railway personnel through training, and protection, guaranteeing the rights of persons with disabilities and building safe and secure transfer spaces for onward journeys. The Ministry of Transportation and Indonesian commuter rail companies must improve supervision, assessment, and sanctions to meet service standards.

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“…For example the application of the adaptive forecast method to forecast flow passenger and freight in railway (Ji-bing & Zhi-ping, 1985), a hybrid approach of combining mode decomposition and gray support vector machine to forecast short-term high-speed rail demand (Jiang, et al, 2014), deterministic and probabilistic forecasting capacities based on the residual component disposing for forecast high-speed rail passenger demand (Cao, et al, 2021). system dynamics modeling for forecasting railway demand, trains, and employees to create safety, security improvement and support rational policymaking for future railway management (Wijayanto, et al, 2022), and one possible approach to use for forecasting is artificial intelligence techniques using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) (Wu and Kumar 200).…”

Section: Literature On Railways Passenger Demand Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Approach for Passenger Demand Forecasting of a New Railway Services

Pujawan¹,

Yaqin²,

Santoso³

et al. 2022

Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management

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Forecasting for passenger demand in a new railway service is a challenging activity. There are many variables that could affect the number of passengers that will use railway services and many of those variables may be unique to each specific situation. In this study, we present a study that attempts to forecast railway passengers for a newly constructed railway line of Makassar -Parepare in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. We propose a combination of the System Dynamics and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The system dynamics is a simulation method that is used to generate a set of training data for the ANN. The initial data were collected through a survey of willingness to use

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A System Dynamics Model of Urban Railway Demand Prediction for Safety and Security Improvement: Lessons Learned from Indonesian Railway Network

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Dynamic Modeling Impacts of Inter-Urban Railway Transportation on Regional Development: A Case Study of Sub-Urban Greater Jakarta, Indonesia

Dynamic Modeling Impacts of Inter-Urban Railway Transportation on Regional Development: A Case Study of Sub-Urban Greater Jakarta, Indonesia

Policy development of urban railway services sustainability in Indonesia: A multipol application

A Novel Approach for Passenger Demand Forecasting of a New Railway Services

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