A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehrani‐Fard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.037

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…One could be resorting to simpler surrogate models like RSM. Reference by the authors (Hoseyni et al, 2014) uses this approach and describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. Another alternative is utilization of ensemble-based sensitivity analysis introduced recently by Di Maio et al (2014), and Hoseyni et al (2015) using finite mixture models by Carlos et al (2013).…”

Section: Review Of Existing Uncertainty Ranking Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rank 9 means the highest importance and 1 is the lowest. A detailed description of the modified PIRT is provided in Hoseyni et al (2014) and Pourgol-Mohamad (2006). For a set of input parameters of a computer code x = {x 1 , x 2 , .…”

Section: Qualitative Phase (Modified Pirt)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The previous article by the authors (Hoseyni et al, 2014) demonstrated a hybrid qualitative/quantitative framework for the uncertainty analysis plus importance in severe accident calculations. The qualitative phase identifies, ranks, and screens the important phenomena in the course of severe accident progression.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors concluded (Hoseyni et al, 2014) that the extension of this area could be devising a new effective uncertainty importance measure (UIM) that is more suitable for thermal-hydraulics as well as severe accident uncertainty analysis. Considering the large computational cost of the calculations, it would be very useful to devise a methodology that identifies the uncertainty ranking of the parameters at lower cost, the driving motivation for the research reported in this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

Pourgol-Mohammad

Hoseyni

Hoseyni³

et al. 2016

Nuclear Engineering and Design

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Section: Review Of Existing Uncertainty Ranking Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Qualitative Phase (Modified Pirt)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

Pourgol-Mohammad

Hoseyni

Hoseyni³

et al. 2016

Nuclear Engineering and Design

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“…Rank 9 means the highest importance and 1 is the lowest. A detailed description of the modified PIRT is provided in Hoseyni et al (2014a), Pourgol-Mohamad (2006.…”

Section: Identification Of Important Parameters Of Th Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating thermo-hydraulics uncertainties of success criteria in probabilistic risk assessment

Hoseyni

Karimi

Yousefpour³

2016

Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag

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Success criteria analysis in nuclear power plants is based on thermo-hydraulics (TH) evaluation of the plant response to postulated accidents for the development of a risk model. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) uncertainties originate from diverse sources, including uncertainty of success criteria. A comprehensive uncertainty treatment methodology is therefore needed for the quantification of PRA uncertainty considering the success criteria uncertainty. This paper covers the topic and introduces a systematic framework for this purpose. The proposed methodology is capable of including model uncertainty of success criteria in the plant risk model which is not formally performed in industrial practice. An extension is proposed for the traditional event trees to include a new top event for taking the effect of TH uncertainties into account. The required probability density function for this top event is obtained by performing TH uncertainty analysis and statistical interpretation of the obtained results. The application of the methodology is sought by its implementation on real case of loss of coolant accident in a PWR type nuclear power plant.

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Modeling, analysis, and optimization under uncertainties: a review

Acar

Bayrak

Jung

et al. 2021

Struct Multidisc Optim

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A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

Cited by 18 publications

References 30 publications

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

Evaluating thermo-hydraulics uncertainties of success criteria in probabilistic risk assessment

Modeling, analysis, and optimization under uncertainties: a review

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