A systematic review of consequence modeling studies of the process accidents in Iran from 2006 to 2022

Pouyakian, Mostafa; Ashouri, Maryam; Eidani, Shaghayegh; Madvari, Rohollah Fallah; Laal, Fereydoon

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13550

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Other studies discuss the origination and development of different dispersion models that readers are directed to [39,40]. Very recent publications include [41], where a review of dispersion modeling was provided. Additionally, ref.…”

Section: Background On Dispersion Modeling and Cfdmentioning

confidence: 99%

CFD Simulation Models and Diffusion Models for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Plumes following Tank and Pipeline Ruptures—Laboratory Test and a Real-World Case Study

Abraham,

Cheng,

Gorman

2024

Energies

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Ruptures of pipelines can result in dangerous fluids spreading toward populated areas. It is critical for designers to have tools that can accurately predict whether populated areas might be within a plume rupture zone. Numerical simulations using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are compared here with experimental and real-world carbon dioxide ruptures. The experimental data were used to validate the computer model; subsequently, the algorithm was used for a real-world rupture from 2020 that occurred in the USA. From experiments, CFD predictions were superior to diffusion model results based on measurements made downstream of the release (within 1% concentration). Results from the real-world simulation confirm that a nearby town was in a plume pathway. Citizens in the town sought medical attention consistent with the calculated plume concentrations. CFD predictions of the airborne concentration of carbon dioxide in the town approximately 1 mile (1.5 km) downstream of the rupture reveal time-averaged concentrations of ~5%. One person was unconscious for ~45 min at a distance of 0.6 miles from the rupture site; other unconscious persons were in the center of the town (~1 mile from the rupture site) and ~1.2 miles from the rupture. These reports are in excellent agreement with the calculated plume concentrations in the region.

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Section: Background On Dispersion Modeling and Cfdmentioning

confidence: 99%

CFD Simulation Models and Diffusion Models for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Plumes following Tank and Pipeline Ruptures—Laboratory Test and a Real-World Case Study

Abraham,

Cheng,

Gorman

2024

Energies

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“…Crude oil is a nonvolatile flammable liquid, which may cause pool fire. The accident consequence can be calculated by the PHAST 8.21 software, which is one of the most famous and widely used software tools available in the field of risk analysis [58], and the intensities of thermal radiation and overpressure received by the target tank from the primary tank are listed in Supplementary Material S4.…”

Section: Accident Consequence Analysis and Accident Escalation Probab...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis

Yang¹,

Chen

Zhao³

2023

Sustainability

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Along with global climate change and industrialization, domino effects caused by Natech events occurred frequently in chemical industrial parks over the past decades. Previous research has not yet proposed a reliable method to obtain all possible paths of Natech domino effects, and moreover, a risk assessment and mitigation system has not been established. The present work aims to develop a quantitative framework for propagation paths of Natech domino effects, which can effectively safeguard the sustainable development of chemical industrial parks. The presentation of this work is divided into two parts: Part I (current paper) proposes a path probability calculation method that can simultaneously consider multiple primary accident scenarios and multi-level domino effects triggered by natural disasters. The proposed method transforms the propagation paths of domino effects into the paths of directed graph by constructing the equipment failure state transition matrix and the equipment failure state transition probability matrix. The depth-first traversal algorithm is used to obtain all possible propagation paths and their propagation probabilities, providing data support for the quantitative risk assessment and prevention and control measures presented in the accompanying paper (Part II). The case study shows that the probability of equipment failure caused by multi-level domino effects triggered by Natech accidents is higher than that of conventional accidents. However, the present work only considers the spatial propagation of domino effects, while their spatio-temporal propagation remains as a further direction for this area of inquiry.

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“…Owing to the diverse array and substantial quantities of hazardous and flammable chemicals, process industries are deemed high-risk sectors that are susceptible to catastrophic accidents [ 1 , 2 ]. Drilling is one of the process industries that ranks among the most critical operational sectors worldwide with significant risks due to its substantial volumes of hydrocarbon and chemical materials.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing a comprehensive approach to oil well blowout risk assessment

Satiarvand,

Orak,

Varshosaz

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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Drilling is one of the most dangerous activities in the oil and gas process industries. Therefore, a holistic approach was presented to prevent and control risks and reduce the uncertainty of blowouts, kick scenarios, and control layers based on the Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN). Four independent protection layers (IPLs) were used to evaluate the blowout outcome, and the failure probabilities of IPL1 and IPL2 were calculated with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Then, different events were transferred to the Bayesian Network (BN) in GeNIe software, and updated the probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree (FFT) results reveal that the failure probabilities for IPL1 and IPL2 amount to 8.94×10−4 and 4.97×10−21, respectively. Also, the blowout probability results based on FFT were larger than FBN. According to FBN, the probability of the kick event was equal to 6.60×10−34. Sensitivity analysis showed that X1 (Mud volume/flow change) had the highest degree of importance in the blowout of oil wells. The results of this study can be used in both a preventive and reactive approach. Deductive and inductive reasoning, the dynamic nature and conditional dependencies, and causal relationships between events can make the model more realistic.

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A systematic review of consequence modeling studies of the process accidents in Iran from 2006 to 2022

Cited by 9 publications

References 41 publications

CFD Simulation Models and Diffusion Models for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Plumes following Tank and Pipeline Ruptures—Laboratory Test and a Real-World Case Study

CFD Simulation Models and Diffusion Models for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Plumes following Tank and Pipeline Ruptures—Laboratory Test and a Real-World Case Study

A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis

Providing a comprehensive approach to oil well blowout risk assessment

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