A Systematic Review of Methods to Predict Weight Trajectories in Health Economic Models of Behavioral Weight-Management Programs: The Potential Role of Psychosocial Factors

Bates, Sarah; Bayley, Thomas; Norman, Paul; Breeze, Penny; Brennan, Alan

doi:10.1177/0272989x19889897

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 92 publications

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“…Bates et al. (2020) undertook a systematic review of methods to predict body mass index (BMI) trajectories in health economic models of behavioral weight‐management programs. Six different assumptions were made across the included studies to estimate what would happen due to the intervention following the trial, ranging from assuming weight‐loss is maintained over an individual's lifetime to regaining the weight immediately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The long‐term effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review

Squires,

Kelly,

Gilbert

et al. 2023

Health Economics

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The effectiveness and cost of a public health intervention is dependent on complex human behaviors, yet health economic models typically make simplified assumptions about behavior, based on little theory or evidence. This paper reviews existing methods across disciplines for incorporating behavior within simulation models, to explore what methods could be used within health economic models and to highlight areas for further research. This may lead to better‐informed model predictions. The most promising methods identified which could be used to improve modeling of the causal pathways of behavior‐change interventions include econometric analyses, structural equation models, data mining and agent‐based modeling; the latter of which has the advantage of being able to incorporate the non‐linear, dynamic influences on behavior, including social and spatial networks. Twenty‐two studies were identified which quantify behavioral theories within simulation models. These studies highlight the importance of combining individual decision making and interactions with the environment and demonstrate the importance of social norms in determining behavior. However, there are many theoretical and practical limitations of quantifying behavioral theory. Further research is needed about the use of agent‐based models for health economic modeling, and the potential use of behavior maintenance theories and data mining.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The long‐term effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review

Squires,

Kelly,

Gilbert

et al. 2023

Health Economics

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Ten-year postintervention follow-up of adolescents participating in the management of overweight and social inequalities (PRALIMAP-INÈS intervention): the PRALIMAP-CINeCO survey protocol

Legrand,

Manneville,

Langlois

et al. 2024

BMJ Open

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IntroductionThe short-term effectiveness of the PRomotion de l’ALIMentation et de l’Activité Physique–INÈgalités de Santé’ (PRALIMAP-INÈS) intervention to reduce social inequalities in overweight and obesity management among adolescents between 2012 and 2015 was demonstrated. This longitudinal mixed-methods study is a 10-year postintervention follow-up of the PRALIMAP-INÈS intervention with the aim of investigating social, economic, educational and health (especially weight) trajectories from adolescence to young adulthood.Methods and analysisAmong adolescents enrolled in PRALIMAP-INÈS (n=1419), we estimate the number of participants to be 852. Adolescents who were included in the PRALIMAP-INÈS intervention will be contacted 10 years later and invited to participate in a follow-up visit. Participants will self-report their sociodemographic characteristics, body image perceptions, overweight/obesity care pathway, lifestyle and dietary behaviours and attitudes, psychological health and experience of the PRALIMAP-INÈS intervention. A check-up visit will be scheduled by a clinical research nurse to record waist circumference and weight and height for body mass index calculation and to construct the healthcare pathway from adolescence to young adulthood. 40 participants will be invited to participate in a semistructured interview conducted by a sociologist to deepen the understanding of trajectories regarding social aspects that are likely to influence health behaviours in participants.Ethics and disseminationThe PRALIMAP-CINeCO trial was approved by French Persons Protection Committee (no. 2021-A00949-32) and a conformity declaration was made with French National Commission for Data Protection and Liberties. Results will be presented at conferences and published in international peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration numberNCT05386017; Pre-results

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Using health economic modelling to inform the design and development of an intervention: estimating the justifiable cost of weight loss maintenance in the UK

et al. 2022

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Background There is a need to develop cost-effective weight loss maintenance interventions to prolong the positive impact of weight loss on health outcomes. Conducting pre-trial health economic modelling is recommended to inform the design and development of behavioural interventions. We aimed to use health economic modelling to estimate the maximum cost per-person (justifiable cost) of a cost-effective behavioural weight loss maintenance intervention, given an estimated intervention effect for individuals with: i) a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 28 kg/m2 or above without diabetes and ii) a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes prescribed a single non-insulin diabetes medication. Methods The School for Public Health Research Diabetes prevention model was used to estimate the lifetime Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, healthcare costs, and maximum justifiable cost associated with a weight loss maintenance intervention. Based on a meta-analysis, the estimated effect of a weight loss maintenance intervention following a 9 kg weight loss, was a regain of 1.33 kg and 4.38 kg in years one and two respectively compared to greater regain of 2.84 kg and 5.6 kg in the control group. Sensitivity analysis was conducted around the rate of regain, duration of effect and initial weight loss. Results The justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance intervention at an ICER of £20,000 per QALY was £104.64 for an individual with a BMI of 28 or over and £88.14 for an individual with type 2 diabetes. Within sensitivity analysis, this varied from £36.42 to £203.77 for the former, and between £29.98 and £173.05 for the latter. Conclusions Researchers developing a weight loss maintenance intervention should consider these maximum justifiable cost estimates and the potential impact of the duration of effect and initial weight loss when designing intervention content and deciding target populations. Future research should consider using the methods demonstrated in this study to use health economic modelling to inform the design and budgetary decisions in the development of a behavioural interventions.

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A Systematic Review of Methods to Predict Weight Trajectories in Health Economic Models of Behavioral Weight-Management Programs: The Potential Role of Psychosocial Factors

Cited by 4 publications

References 92 publications

The long‐term effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review

The long‐term effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review

Ten-year postintervention follow-up of adolescents participating in the management of overweight and social inequalities (PRALIMAP-INÈS intervention): the PRALIMAP-CINeCO survey protocol

Using health economic modelling to inform the design and development of an intervention: estimating the justifiable cost of weight loss maintenance in the UK

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